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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (14009)	10/27/1999 4:54:00 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

So in essence,FIDO and I had a common thread DOUBTS. (LOL)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank, it was a good one Zbyslaw

To: Doug who wrote (14009)	10/27/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: nick cash	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18016

a realistic assessment: i've received a few pm's so i guess i'll chime in again.... i disagree with a lot of the garbage type stuff that's completely irrelevant to the situation, ie: serge ranting about sec investigations about insider trading over the stanford deal. geez, give me a break- too much spare time on hand apparently. doug's been right on the technical call. attempts to put a happy face on this are not objective. to contend that fidelity selling is the only problem is naive. as i said in my last post, i clearly made a mistake (and violated my discipline) when i added @ 25 1/8. dumb. i was convinced that there wuld be a series of announcements coming out of geneva and, as such, placed weight on that over the technical action in the stock. i repeat- dumb. knowing this @ $22, i pegged 20 as realistic downside (like doug- we agree for once) and decided that i could live with the pain of another 10%. 20 isn't holding so i'm looking pretty stupid on this count as well. this mistake has cost my portfolio about 2 1/2% in the past 3 weeks. so now where? the talk, as i hear it, is not that nn's definitely going to miss their quarter. the talk is that, as of the start of the quiet period, it was still up in the air. given the factors i highlighted in my last post (mainly my perception that they have some wiggle room based on the carry over from the large Q4 revenue shortfall), this is incredible to me. orders were tracking very well, supply chain problems behind them...... and still they're struggling to meet low ball estimates?!!!!! whether they miss or not, there is some explaining to do. my concern is that if they do miss, there will be such a backlash that it might be tough for the board to defend alan lutz's job. i do not want to see him go; and i still stand by my statement that i believe nn is a quarter or 2 away from exploding (as opposed to imploding!). with the drop below 20 1/2 i am now underwater on my last 2 purchases. throw in the opportunity cost of not having the $ in another stock, and i'm certainly not happy. that said, the last thing nn needs, warning or no warning, is turnover @ the top. if they haven't delivered by the end of their fy Q4, then i'll be leading the charge for heads to roll. as for now, i truly believe that they have momentum in the marketplace and in product development that will translate into momentum in the stock (the good kind this time- going up). @ this point, i've endured enough pain that i'm somewhat hoping it tests last fall's lows around $15. if it does, i would expect to double my position- which would be a huge % stake for my portfolio in the 15% area. all information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to sell advisory services. equities noted herein are referenced in the context of the message and are not necessarily representative of any portfolio. both myself and clients of my firm currently hold a long position in nn. and, of course, all is clearly imo only........nick