Things look very bright for CUBE semi. They look great for the semi market in general. Factor in CUBE's hot niche and we have a real winner.
SIA sees stronger growth for chip market in 2000
By Robert Ristelhueber
EE Times
(10/27/99, 5:53 p.m. EDT)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — The worldwide semiconductor industry is forecast to grow 21 percent next year to $174 billion, following 15 percent growth in 1999, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) said Wednesday (Oct. 27).
Further market expansion is anticipated in subsequent years, the industry group said. In 2001, semiconductor revenue will grow 20 percent to $209 billion, while growth in 2002 will be 12 percent, to $234 billion, the SIA said.
Much of that growth will be fueled by the DRAM market, which is now enjoying its first good year since 1995, the SIA said. DRAM revenue will grow 31 percent this year to $18 billion, and is anticipated to grow 39 percent in 2000 to $25 billion, and 44 percent in 2001 to $37 billion. Growth will decline to 5 percent in 2002, the organization said.
Growth in the MOS microprocessor segment will slow by historical standards due to a maturing PC market, the SIA said. Embedded processors, however, will grow in importance. Embedded processors currently represents 50 percent of all processor units, but only about 15 percent of the dollars in that category. Microprocessor revenues should grow 11 percent this year to $28 billion, then by 17 percent in 2000 to $32 billion, and by 14 percent in 2001 to $40 billion.
"Demand for semiconductors will surge due to the proliferation of wired and wireless information appliances as well as Internet infrastructure products," said Brian Halla, chairman and chief executive officer of National Semiconductor Corp., in a prepared statement. He also said a shift in product leadership was taking place from the personal computer to those information appliances.
Discrete components are rebounding this year because of strong recoveries in Japan and Asian markets. Growth will be 9 percent in 1999, to $13 billion, with 12 percent and 9 percent growth in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Sensors are growing nearly 30 percent per year.
Analog semiconductor revenues will grow 11 percent this year to $21 billion, followed by 18 percent growth in both 2000 and 2001. Telecom analog will grow 30 percent per year, the SIA said.
MOS logic, which includes standard cell, gate array and programmable-logic devices (PLDs), will grow 23 percent this year to $23 billion, followed by 20 percent and 18 percent expansion in the next two years. Networking infrastructure and video games will help power this market.
MOS microcontroller revenues, including digital signal processors, will grow 16 percent this year to $14 billion, followed by 27 and 25 percent increases in 2000 and 2001, respectively. DSP revenues are predicted to grow at least 30 percent each year. This is the first year in which the growth for this category of product is forecast to grow faster than MOS microprocessors, the SIA said.
Sales of 32-bit devices in this category more than doubled this year due in large part to demand for set-top box applications.
Static RAM revenues are expected to grow 9 percent this year to $4.3 billion, followed by 12 percent and 10 percent hikes in the next two years. The apparent slow growth rate is due to integration of cache — once implemented in discrete SRAMs — onto a system's microprocessor. SRAMs are shifting into communications rather than computing applications, the SIA said.
Flash is the fastest-growing memory product line in 1999, expanding 63 percent to $4.1 billion, with cellular phones and digital cameras leading the demand for this product. Flash will grow 36 percent and 19 percent in 2000 and 2001, respectively.
Geographically, the Americas will grow 13 percent in 1999, to $47 billion, followed by 21 percent growth in both 2000 and 2001. Europe will expand 6 percent in 1999 to $31 billion, followed by 27 percent and 20 percent growth in the next two years. Japan will grow 21 percent in 1999 to $31 billion, followed by 19 percent and 16 percent growth in 2000 and 2001. The Asia-Pacific market will grow 21 percent this year to $35 billion, followed by 23 and 25 percent growth in the next two years. |
