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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9509)	10/27/1999 10:30:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

A blurb from Fleck worthy of consideration. Techies here must listen to the call. Wait for the Q & A : "Inacomp (ICO) enters nuclear winter... So Compaq didn't give us any clarity, but Inacomp, which is the largest corporate reseller in the world, came out and announced disastrous results. It experienced an old-fashioned kind of stock split, down 50 percent on the day. (If any of you are uncertain as to whether nuclear winter is occurring, you might want to listen in to the replay of the conference call. The phone number is (800) 925-5456. Hearing that call should leave no doubt in anyone's mind what is happening.) Rather than me paraphrase the company, I'm just going to read a quote from the president and CEO. He said: "We are not immune to the general slowdown currently facing our industry as a result of Y2K concerns and product availability issues. As the largest Wintel reseller in the world, the slowdown being felt by leading Wintel providers - IBM, Compaq, Hewlett Packard and others - will translate into a negative impact on our business." So there you have it. We've got all the nuclear winter data. We've got some folks who have told it like it is, mostly because they've been forced to, and we've had some people try to spin a good story. I don't see how anyone with the tiniest amount of skepticism cannot see this for what it is. Wall Street continues to be apologetic, trying to deny the existence of this problem, as do many of the corporations. Nuclear winter and Microsoft... Last week, what Microsoft's CFO had to say was cited as proof positive there was no nuclear winter impact, even though as we pointed out at the time, revenues were down sequentially and deferred revenues were down, which is unusual. Today, Goldman's star analyst had a note in his report that Microsoft's Office bookings growth was an estimated 12 percent. "We believe Y2K issues are likely behind the slower bookings growth for the new version of Office." He also went on to say that this includes the benefit of Asia's launch of Office 2000, so growth in North America was likely even slower. "We attribute this to corporate reluctance to move to the new version just before Y2K," he said. Whatever the reason, nuclear winter appears to have even affected Microsoft's Office business, which is where you would expect to find it - not in its consumer business, which benefits from ever-cheaper PCs. So the evidence would appear to be incontrovertible about the nuclear winter story. We will see how long it takes before folks connect the dots and recognize it for what it is."