Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (32952)	10/28/1999 8:41:00 AM
From: Xpiderman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Chip industry poised for growth BY TOM QUINLAN Mercury News Staff Writer sjmercury.com After a dismal beginning, 1999 turned out to be a boom year for the semiconductor industry, the start of what an industry trade group forecasts as a four-year up cycle that will see worldwide chip sales increase 63 percent by the end of 2002. This year semiconductor sales are expected to surpass $144 billion, a 15 percent increase compared with 1998's sales and far better than the 9 percent growth rate the Semiconductor Industry Association had originally predicted. By 2002, chip sales are expected to pass $234 billion. Unlike previous years, the boom is expected to benefit all segments of the industry. The growth is being fueled by a seemingly insatiable demand for low-cost personal computers and the proliferation of digitally equipped consumer electronics devices, including digital cameras, smart cellular phones and television set-top boxes. Those products will require a wide array of electronic components -- logic chips, analog devices, memory, controllers and sometimes even processors -- as consumers demand voice and data connectivity from wherever they might be. Microprocessors and memory -- the two main types of chips used in PCs -- will remain the largest single markets within the semiconductor industry with sales of $42 billion and $50.5 billion respectively by the end of 2002. Currently, those two global markets are worth $28 billion and $29 billion. But the expanding market for digital consumer electronics will drive up demand for all kinds of chips. ''We are currently undergoing a shift in product leadership from personal computers to wireless communications applications and Internet infrastructure products,'' said Brian Halla, CEO of National Semiconductor Inc. and the man who presented the SIA's forecasts at the associations annual dinner Wednesday night in San Jose. Even if the current bull market in the United States were to end, Halla predicted that demand for digital devices would still grow. ''No one would give up their cell phone and the $45 or $450 charges they pay every month,'' Halla said. ''It's become a part of their lives. I think the Internet is going to have the same kind of impact.'' The SIA predicts that by the end of 2002, sales of discrete components, such as sensors, will rise to $17 billion, logic chips will be $37 billion and microcontrollers and processors $26 billion. Wireless communications devices such as telephones and hand-held computers will drive demand for analog chips to the $35 billion level. The robust forecast means that new SIA board Chairman T.J. Rodgers, founder and CEO of Cypress Semiconductor Corp., is taking on his new office on a positive note. IBM Microelectronics general manager John Kelly will take Rodgers' place as vice chairman of the SIA board. Most companies and analysts agree in predicting strong demand across the board for semiconductor products, but accurate long-range forecasts for the industry remain more of an art than a science. In 1998, the SIA was poised for 17 percent growth in semiconductor sales. Instead, in part because of the Asian economic crisis, demand dropped by 11 percent to $122 billion.

To: Gottfried who wrote (32952)	11/3/1999 5:31:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I still have my kids in AMAT. Since they are a lot younger than I am I left them in AMAT rather than selling it earlier. When I sold AMAT I went directly into CSCO, LU and EMC to pick up addition shares on the price spread between the AMAT and them. In fact I have more total shares than what I had in AMAT and now can wait for CSCO, LU and EMC to move up and exceed $100. Look at their bull support lines for the past five plus years. I will wait for AMAT to pull back into the $20's post split before buying more shares. Just my opinion. Paul