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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sawtooth who wrote (7267)	10/28/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

vvvvvv - <<In other words, IYO, are we now in just another iteration of the cycle or has a fundamental change taken place in some other way?>> Do you really have to have a 40GB DD today? Does the avg high tech Joe really need one? When was the last time in history the avg guy didn't really need more capacity? todd

To: Sawtooth who wrote (7267)	10/28/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: LK2	Respond to of 9256

>>are we now in just another iteration of the cycle or has a fundamental change taken place in some other way?<< The more things change, the more they stay the same. In general terms, the disk drive demand/capacity growth cycle is still the same it's always been. Have there been any major changes in the cycle? Nope. That's why it's so frustrating to invest in this sector. There has been strong unit growth of disk drives sold. But that hasn't translated into profit growth for the industry. We're always hoping to hit it lucky, I guess. Larry

To: Sawtooth who wrote (7267)	10/28/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Mark Madden	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

"In other words, IYO, are we now in just another iteration of the cycle or has a fundamental change taken place in some other way?" The sector has continually cycled. There have been shortages of drives that put them on allocation several times in the past. None of the down cycles have been this long or this deep. In all the down cycles I have wondered if there would ever be another up-cycle. IMO there will be another up-cycle this time based on broadband communications but I have no idea when it will occur. Broadbband communications (optical cables) are presently opening up in the communications "backbone" from city to city. They are connecting large companies first, creating good demand for enterprise drives. The "last mile" communications will connect small businesses and homes with connections such as cable modems and DSL modems. This area is growing at a tremendous rate but it will still take time. Broadband communications will enable us to transfer pictures and sound that could be stored on hard drives. Data could be moved over cables instead of on trucks carrying plastic disks. Movies could be sent over your modem and stored on disk drives until you wish to view them. IMO this revolutionary change will restore demand for disk drives.