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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (9520)	10/28/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I2: Re: "It makes sense to me. If, however, there is a corporate reluctance to purchase new software prior to the century date change, doesn't that mean that the floodgates on sales will be opened in early 2000?" I would think it would mean an increase in sales to more normal levels. This whole "floodgate" or "meltup" stuff is just the other side of "nuclear winter." They are all overstatements IMO. If one believes in the "meltup" scenario, one also must believe in the "nucelar winter" scenario because you can't have a "meltup" without a "nuclear winter" all things being equal.

To: Investor2 who wrote (9520)	10/28/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Y2K musings... Some companies (including Big Blue) have started to use the Y-word in there recent announcements. Some references could be legit - others may be a cover for more systemic company-related problems. Sorting out the wheat from the chaff may be difficult... Different scenarios have been postulated - ranging from doomsday to ho-humm. - Re: Inventories and Quarterly Sales - Y2K impact on same: One could postulate various scenarios... It is not clear to me which is the most likely to occur - although I am leaning toward this one as the most probable: * For fear of delays at the start of year 2000, manufacturing companies may stockpile critical supplies early (or may have already?) - increasing sales in the 3rd and/or 4th quarter of 1999. If so, there could be a corresponding decrease/slowdown in their orders of the same supplies in the following quarter(s) - 4th Qtr 99/or 1st Qtr 2000. - Re: Orders for new computers (and/or new computers)- a more complicated situation. ...to be continued....