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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2075)	10/28/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 3661

SIA's revised forecast: REVISED OLD(Jun8) Difference 1999 $144B $133B 11B 2000 $174B $162B 12B 2001 $209B $191B 18B 2002 $234B $216B 18B Total: $59B. So it looks like an additional $12B of equipment will be required to meet the increased demand forecast. Usually, one upward revision leads to another. Get out the shades. The future is beginning to look even brighter. :-) Ian

To: Ian@SI who wrote (2075)	10/28/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3661

October 28, 1999 Taiwan Stks May Test 10,000 Next Yr On Rosy Econ -Analyst TAIPEI -- Taiwan's benchmark stock index will likely rise above 10,000 points next year amid a bright outlook for economic growth, said a senior executive at Taiwan Securities Investment Trust Co. Thursday. Another major factor behind the optimism is the expectation that foreign investors will channel more money into Taiwan for stock investment after Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. doubles its Taiwan indexes weighting in February 2000, which should provide the local bourse fresh impetus, said Michael Chi, vice president of the investment trust company. Chi was speaking to a group of local institutional investors during an investment strategy presentation. "Based on the rosy GDP forecast, you should believe that Taiwan's stock market is one of the best choices for investors in Asia. We aren't pessimistic at all about the future direction of the index," said Chi. Chi forecast Taiwan's gross domestic product will reach 6.1% next year on expanding exports. The growth is in line with the government's forecast. Taiwan's exports to Asia had fallen sharply during the Asian financial crisis, but the broad recovery in Asian economies is boosting demand for Taiwan's products. Thursday, the Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange closed down 19.37 points, or 0.3%, to 7681.85. In 2000, the average earnings per share of all listed companies will grow to NT$1.74, a 34% increase from NT$1.3 projected for 1999, said Chi. Among all sectors, shares of technology companies will remain the market focus as the average EPS of all listed technology firms will rise to NT$3.66 from an estimated NT$2.42 this year, said Chi. "Shares of semiconductor and large-sized display screen makers are worthwhile investments," based on their earnings potential, said Chi. "Obviously the semiconductor industry is bottoming out and will continue to recover for the next three years," Chi added. The production value of global chip foundry will double to US$12.35 billion in 2002 from US$6.38 billion projected for 1999. The production value of global dynamic random access memory chips will increase to US$45.6 billion in 2002, compared with US$14.3 billion estimated this year, said Chi. Taiwan supplies around 10% of the world's DRAM chips, the most commonly used memory chip in PCs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (Q.TSC) is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry and United Microelectronics Corp. (Q.UME) and Mosel Vitelic Inc. (Q.MVT) are among Taiwan's leading chipmakers. Chi didn't recommend buying in specific semiconductor stocks. Chi also said the future development of the local LCD industry is very promising due to rising demand for use in notebook computers and monitors. Though industry analysts worry that local LCD makers will see a glut of LCD screens soon after ramping up LCD production, Chi said oversupply won't happen until 2001.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (2075)	10/28/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: John Stewart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3661

Ian; To the best of my limited knowledge, TI has not yet ordered an Aspen III CVD. I think Brad was telling us something when he said the cycle of buying goes DRAM first, the TI's of the world 2nd, then INTC. We still need to get a few more DRAM guys to get past stage #1, I think. BTW, with all the chicken little type talk going on here, you'd think it was GSNX that was overtaking MTSN in market share right now, rather than the other way :') But heck, why should we let fundamentals get in the way of emotional based thought :') Kind Regards, John Stewart