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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (31740)	10/28/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

As you know I was on the bullish side short term only, at least compared to my normal self, but the rally today stumps me. I expected a rally on a good or benign report. This report was all but. See this post for a few things to make you say hmmmm Message 11734406 I still say the drop in unemployment claims is the key. I read here there was a employment report being released next week. I plan on being short by the time that is released. I haven't downloaded my stuff yet tonight and I am exhausted so I may not even do my charts or site tonight at all. The last time I checked, I had OEX resistance around 700 and then around 715. If AG can't talk this down tonight so the 700 holds, then I will start buying my puts around 715. Who knows I may change my tune when I run through the charts but this was too much. I have to admit that there was good volume and this was one of the broadest based rallies we have had all year. I spoke to a few of you either through PMs or telephone and pointed out we could have been forming bullish flags but I am still thinking this is ridiculous. I am nervous though as I posted last night either here or on my site that the techs have led this bull since it's inception and when I see PVN climbing in double digit percentage points and previously strong tech stocks lagging, I have to question the rotation. I also have to admit that I am a bit envious and mad at myself for not having the kahones to buy this thing when I was posting that the rally was coming, the rally was coming but didn't believe it myself enough to buy some of the stocks I stared at every night saying these are going to pop but kept waiting for confirmation. I am considering giving up options until this market settles down and go back to plain stocks which can be held without time limits. There is just too much frenzy out there. I received an e-mail today where a friend of mine that does very well admitted he bought a few stocks a few days ago. His main reason was because he hadn't gotten to trade in a couple weeks. I have to admit I was feeling the same way. We are all addicted to the market and when we have a market too risky to play, we look for any reason to trade it anyway. Today was a fine example of everyone stepping up to the craps table even though they are openly advertising the dice are loaded. I think we could stay up untilthe employment report then we are going to visit the lower range again. BWDIK Good Luck, Lee

To: donald sew who wrote (31740)	10/28/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, i agree...it's probably still too early too be 100% confident of new highs across the board for the very reasons you mention. in any case, i believe the dip comes next. ultimately the anomaly of sector rotation without broad-based progress still calls for a capitulation sell-off at some point. presumably when no-one expects it. late November/early December seem ideal candidates time-wise and from the positioning of the cycles. however, i still think a Santa and New Year rally is almost unavoidable...that may be the time for the blow-off, which i feel is also in the cards eventually. btw, i have heard of an LT cycle analyst who's decidedly bearish until 2003...i dont share this view right now, but a bear market lasting until then would also be a surprise for most people, so i won't rule it out entirely. personally i'm more in Arik's camp...more downside from here after the current rally has run it's course, then another strong run-up on dissipating Y2K fears followed by a surprise downturn, perhaps even the BK. this is looking into next year already....i'd be prepared to change that opinion if i see the cycles inverting, but that is not the case right now. regards, hb