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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (44262)10/28/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: PaulM  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 116815
 
You may wonder why markets go crazy when the feds revise GDP upward and inflation downward based on nothing more than accounting changes.

The bears say the markets are "stupid." I think not.

It' not that these numbers signal that inflation is low. It's that these numbers signal that the fed will ACT AS THOUGH inflation is low (i.e., maintain the stock market, generous liquidity etc.)

That's what these non-sensical changes to the CPI and GDP are all about. Two percent a year for social security recipients. Twenty percent a year for Wall Street.

I really don't expect a market crash either, EXCEPT in real terms (and that will be a severe one at that). What we will have is a sideways up, sideways down movement, with lots inflation that nobody officially recognizes.