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To: Jack Bridges who wrote (2813)	10/28/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

Jack. The bad consequences of a China devaluation are obvious. However, it is certainly beyond my abilities to try to quantify them. As with most macroeconomic issues, there is a price to pay for the benefit derived. So, if China benefits from a devaluation, SE Asia and probably China too will pay some price. China appears to attempt to act totally independantly from what the US may want. It is really hard for me to believe that an instant WTO admission would result in instant relief for China's competative problems due to currency devaluations in the SE Asia area. Would this stop devaluation?? Who knows? I suppose China can hold this sword over the heads of industrial countries--but it surely would cut both ways. US politicians have quickly adopted a negative attitude toward China for good reasons that are easy to understand. I doubt that they will so easily grasp the significance of any economic issues surrounding devaluation. JohnG JohnG