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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading the SPOOs with Patrick Slevin! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (711)	10/30/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: Gary E	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7434

Pat, Yes new forks start all the time. Since we both have QCharts,,,I think the easiest way to explain it would be for me to send you a chart that I have drawn the forks on. Send me an e-mail,,,and I will attach the QChart workspace with the chart. HGEichorst@pdq.net

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (711)	10/30/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7434

Pat, Just took a quick look at the fork Hal mentioned and your Pivot count mention. Here is what I see and my explanation. Points picked quickly, so date might not be dead nuts on, but you will see the points. 7/19 - P0 8/11 - P1 8/25 - P2 9/29 - P3 10/11 - P4 10/18 - P5 and P0 for new series. Now, the intermediate moves usually have five pivot points, but not always....sometimes there are only three and sometimes seven. Sounds like EWave hey? Alternate count this! Just because the move down to the 10/18 low was a P5, does not render forks off the pivot points prior to that null, but just suggests that a change in direction could be upon us. Normally speaking a P0, P1, P2 fork leads you to P3. A P1, P2, P3 fork leads to P4 and so on. The price movement should stop and reverse at the MT of the fork drawn. If the price movement falls short of the MT then weakness is expected and the move lower "might"/"should" be larger than the MT and might hit the LT. Of course the opposite for moves higher....the price would pierce the MT rather than reverse there. Hal's fork is a P3, P4, P5 (P0 of new series) fork and should show us the way to P1 on the next series. In fact, the next series has blown through the MT of the fork. THis means we should hit the UT and we already have. We should now move lower and bounce off the MT of the fork Hal mentioned.....the reason which will be explained shortly....and that point will be somewhere in the 1320 to 1330 range basis SPX. Now, normally when a sharp move occurs you need to draw the next fork using a shiff line. What this is is a modified drawing using one half the distance from the first pivot in the fork to the second pivot in the fork. Let me explain. Assuming the most recent high on FRI was our P1, and I believe it was, the next fork will be drawn using the P4, P5 (P0), and P1 points. The distance from P4 to P5 is measured. Find the middle point of that range and that point is used to drawn the MT of the fork. So from one half the distance P4 to P5 you draw a line through the point that is one half the distance from P5 to P1. Then finish the fork with the normal parallels. The interesting thing is this fork is basically the same as Hal's original fork which suggests strong support in the 1320 to 1330 range on the cash. Looks to me like pullback to that range then blast off once again. Hope this makes sense..... -Scott