Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (146104)	10/30/1999 5:48:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim - why do you keep quoting the opinions of the moronic analysts rather than the statements of DELL's own management? And why do you pick my position, which is mid-range on this thread, as some kind of propaganda? Kemble advanced the idea that DELL is doing an AAPL - giving a vague downside guidance in order to make their earnings statement stand out as a "surprise". Many on the thread agreed with that position. My own position does not set such a high bar for DELL. DELL recently offered rebates on purchases made before the end of October - i.e. before the end of the quarter. Some saw this as a desperation move by DELL to try and save the quarter. I don't believe that to be the case. My own position, based on the IDC and dataquest numbers, is that DELL ought to have better than expected sales for the current quarter, and I thought the rebate offer was more likely to move out old stock ahead of the coppermine launch, typical DELL style to drive higher margin products early in the cycle. A few days of sales would have little impact on the quarter, but if the numbers are already in the bag, it would be smart to clear out the old stock (limited as it is with DELL's model) in 3Q to set up for a strong 4Q with higher margin products. You have attempted in your posts to set DELL's EPS at 22 to 23 cents per share. Why did you do that? I doubt that I am in a position to set expectations for DELL earnings. My position is quite simple - DELL has turned in stellar earnings for the last 3 quarters, never missed expectations, has twice the industry growth, and still the stock has been punished each time. For what??? IMO, DELL needs to show better than expected top line growth and EPS - not a lot, just a few pennies, but still enough to counter the notion that "the PC is dying". DO YOU WORK FOR COMPAQ DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY ? I think my association with CPQ is well known, I have certainly posted about it enough times. I did some consulting with CPQ in 1996 and early 1997, specifically on their storage product strategy. Some of that work was with Mike Lambert, who was at that time VP marketing with CPQ NA. I have had occasional contact with Lambert and other DELL senior management since that time. I have not had any consulting work with CPQ since early 1997. Most of my clients are financial institutions in New York and Boston. I also do occasional work with MSFT, mostly peer review. It is obvious that you spin CPQ's failures positively and DELL's successes negatively. Hey, but all's in love and WAR and this is WAR isn't it?! This statement leads me to believe that you see yourself as part of DELL in some way. I am not "part of DELL" and it is not war for me - it is an investment. When I saw CPQ weakening in late '97 I sold 10% of my position. I sold another 30% in January and February of this year, along with 30% of my DELL position. Unlike you, I am not married to these stocks. Nor am I married to LU, MSFT, INTC. PFE, TYC or any of the other companies in which I hold stock. I do try to invest in companies I "like" - but that is just because I can become more enthusiastic about the investment research. You should work to be a little more objective here. Perhaps if you went back on this thread and reviewed the posts around the so-called "warning" you would realize that I am a long ways from the high side on setting DELL expectations. I sense that you really are not confident about DELL's earnings announcement. Perhaps if you read my posts with a little less filtering, you would understand that I actually have more confidence in DELL's ability to hit the mark than you do - I am simply trying to gauge whether they will do well enough to justify an upside bet on my part prior to earnings.