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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fellow who wrote (23428)	10/31/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 25960

Fellow, I didn't quite follow your numbers, and I suspect that you're off a little because your share price projection is a little too high (can anyone on the thread actually believe I said that <VBG>). Didier's 6-7,000 tools is over the 248nm time frame. (I didn't have easy access to SIA's roadmap, can someone help?) You may as well use Akins' projections. His guess for laser sales in 2000 is $500m, 2001 is $750m, and 2002 is $900m. (These numbers came from his presentation at the last annual meeting.) I don't know if this includes service and spares, but to be conservative let's assume it does. If you figure an after tax rate in 2000, 2001, and 2002 of 15%, 16%, and 17% respectively, and you use shares outstanding of 34m, 35m, and 36m, respectively, you get 2000, 2001, and 2002 EPS of $2.21, $3.43, and $4.25 respectively. Given the growth rate and the fact that companies sell at a multiple of the following year's earnings, you get a share price of $200 sometime in 2001. Let's hope it happens. Jay

To: fellow who wrote (23428)	10/31/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

fellow, Your post was very confusing. The total market for KrF lithography lasers is in the 6k to 7k range according to Pascal. There are currently about 900 units installed. I do not understand your comments regarding copper. That is irrelevant technology with respect to imaging. Eventually, 6000 to 7000 KrF systems may be installed. I can not estimate how many ArF systems may eventually be installed. Bob

To: fellow who wrote (23428)	11/1/1999 10:02:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

fellow, My math's not good, but I'll try: $500k.4(margin)6000=$1.2e+09. That is $1,200,000,000 over three years, without any acceleration=$400,000,000/year / 28,000,000 shares = $14.28/share * 40 (P/E) = $571.43 for a share of Cymer. Why a 40% margin? Presently Cymer's *gross margin* is around 40% but lots of things come out of that before it hits the bottom line. My admittedly bullish prediction is that this gross margin will expand and that net margins will expand too, but nowhere near 40%! I'd be extremely happy with half of that. -Rob