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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (69927)	11/2/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

WC, With all due respect and with all seriousness, I think that it is quite impossible to associate a measure of relatively high probability with an unpredictable event. That, really, is that you are missing, IMHO. Edit: I see that Burke agrees. -BGR.

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (69927)	11/2/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne. Most of the market indexes are forever manipulated to the upside especially the Naz 100 and Dow. As I have mentioned before I don't believe we will ever have a market crash, only sector crashes. Those calling for a market crash (i.e. Bill Fleck, Mr. Magner, Luc) are looking sillier every time the indexes are rigged with new companies. You mentioned "economic implications of a major bust". Well, I say show me the present "economic conditions for a major bust". High debt levels aren't always an ominous negative, especially when we are at full employment. If one had looked at debt levels from 4 years ago one could have mistakenly judged it to be at a dangerous peak. As I have said before, the economy begins and ends with the banks. So whatever triggers the banks to reel in lending will lead to trouble. Despite what Magner says, you will have time to react to the bank trigger. It could be derivative losses exposed (see Chase news today) or it could be an increase in OCC bank regulatory control. In the public eye it has been smooth sailing in the banking world except for a blip up last year in consumer credit default. There is a bomb hidden somewhere below the surface and I am always on the look out for it becoming visible. There are many sector crashes, the most prominent one now being the defense/airline sector. There will be a lot more pain in this sector but if you are patient and hopeful of a Republican getting elected, you could make some decent returns buying some of the crashed out players. Some players to watch are GD (not yet), UTX, LMT (nice rebound), RTNa, RTNb, NOC, BA, etc. There are also some good value plays in the baby bells with their massive plans for DSL build-out. I will be buying more of these when they retrench from their recent run-ups.