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To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (82956)11/3/1999 3:08:00 PM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>why not short an Index

Olu - in my view, the overall market appears to be quite bullish at the moment. I did purchase some QQQ puts about three weeks ago - and sold them two days later for a profit. Shorting the indexes now, however, is going against the overall bullish view - which I would not recommend. We could see a bad employment report on Friday, though - and I read something about the possibility of Eurpean central banks raising interest rates this week - both of these might knock the indexes down a few points over the next few days.

I admit that my logic in shorting ICGE may be flawed (so far it is, as the stock is up 3.5 points from where I shorted it). ICGE has been rising steadily for the past two months (since it's IPO) - yet today has got to be the largest, or one of the largest, single day point gains for ICGE. And by shorting, I'm essentially betting that there will be a pullback before market close today. Today's ICGE move is obviously momentum driven - but I think even the most risk-averse investors might be motivated to take some profits on ICGE by the end of the day. I could certainly be wrong. I will most likely cover before the market closes today.

I think there is little chance that Yahoo would buy ICGE - it's too expensive. There's certainly a bigger chance that Yahoo might buy Vertical Net. But what would Yahoo get from VERT? Not brand (Yahoo already has that) - Yahoo would get some customers and instantly establish themselves in a market in which they don't currently compete, which does have some value. From a technical perspective, Yahoo could copy what Vertical Net has in a short period of time - and Yahoo has the dollars to effectively market it. In all honesty, I don't know much about how Vertical Net makes money. I was under the assumption that VERT made money by providing a site through which companies in different vertical industries buy and sell products among one another. But checking out their web site, that doesn't seem to be entirely the case - it appears that the company is trying to build online communities for different vertical industries (the buying and selling aspect was not readily apparent form their site at first glance). This may or may not work, depending on the industry. For example, I would find it hard to believe that scientists or those that work in the scientific instruments industry would rely on Vertical Net for scientific news and information.

Anyway, if you could shed more light on Vertical Net's business model, I definitely would appreciate it. I have an hour to go, but it looks more and more like I will be covering my ICGE short at a loss today.

Thanks,
-Eric