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To: Thean who wrote (10480)11/4/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
All, my I-Exchange contribution this morning (free for you guys):

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OPMR is now the undisputed leader in the grocery auto-checkout solution space. They are the maker of the fast growing U-Scan checkout machines currently found at major grocery stores such as Kroger, Meijer and A&P. I have followed this company since its early days and they are currently at the early stage of the most profitable phase 3 run in its business growth cycle as well as in its stock price appreciation potential. Phase 1 - Proof the Concept (IPO - April 98) In the early days there was high uncertainty of product acceptance. Since they are primarily a one product company, they had no leverage other than the live or die reality. But they pulled through with #1 grocer Kroger being their major backer in the early days. Kroger's support is paramount to their present day success because their product and customer development experience with Kroger is what set their apart from competitions today. However, OPMR's stock price enjoyed a steady climb because they represent a new concept and they are the sole play in this space. Phase 2 - Build the House (April 98 - April 99) This is the period of growing pain where management has to make careful and tough choices on the direction of growth and areas to reinvest. They had a trial period when they had to grow their service infrastructure. Customer service was a key challenge because the company was small and could not dispatch technician efficiently across many geographical points. It took them more than a year to build up this infrastructure and this is a premium asset they now have and know how to build. During this period, OPMR's stock price stagnated. Phase 3 - Sell the Hotcake (April 1999 - at least next 6 months) The acceptance of U-Scan is finally a reality as evidenced by the repeated orders placed by Kroger, Meijer and A&P. U-Scan is a hit with grocery shoppers as they are easy to use and allow shoppers the quick checkout option. They also benefits the grocers tremendously because of the labor shortage situation. U-Scan is such a hit with shoppers that one often witnesses shoppers rather lining up to use U-Scan than going over to an open regular checkout lane! This period will correspond to a very bullish sentiment and its stock price should grow exponentially. It is still not too late. OPMR stock has appreaciated nicely this year. Since their secondary offering at $9, the stock has appreciated 250% since the spring of 1999. Currently, OPMR has the sponsorship of all three drivers in sync to its stock price success: fundamental, technical and sentiment drivers. The last driver - sentiment driver - is particularly important as more and more investors (many of whom, including myself, found out about OPMR through using U-Scan) discover that OPMR is indeed one of the pure Peter Lynch plays out there today. The two kickers - Walmart and Buyout. Walmart has been installing small number of U-Scan but the illusive major order is yet to come. I believe this is now a supply issue. Once OPMR can guarantee sufficient production capability, this order will come. OPMR is also a parennial buyout candidate as they are the #1 and pure play on auto checkout machine today. They have the leadership position locked in and serious competitions are still nowhere to be seen. Possible suiters include IBM and NCR. Risk - OPMR will have insider selling. But many of this activity is option related and should be treated no differently than Bill Gate selling its MSFT share. Over the recent months, investors have snapped up OPMR during every dips and the net big sellers are either gone or won't come out until OPMR reaches $40.



To: Thean who wrote (10480)11/4/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy  Respond to of 14427
 
Thanks Thean for your views on HLIT.

I'll watch it for a while.