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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Les H who wrote (32297)11/4/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
LH:" MSFT... "

>...Is this distribution ?

imho, no; MSFT tends to "crab" along, converge with its 200d EMA whenever their product cycle(s) become delayed, extended. Buzz in the biz is that most IT managers want to see Y2K roll over before upgrading server or workstation software. YTD origin is ~70, so it's up about +30%

However, interesting to note the high, bullish on-balance volume in MSFTP - Microsoft Preferred right now.

MSFTP has been a superb substitute for BONDs or, Bond Funds this year, fwiw. Mark the (quarterly) ex-dividend dates on the MSFTP chart with vertical lines. What you want to do is enter an order to SELL all @ MKT after the market closes, the session before ex-dividend date. Curiously, MSFTP does not usually "open" down much on its ex-div date... (no specialist on NASDAQ?) Your sell @ MKT order will be executed at OPEN on the ex-dividend date... and the $ div cash will hit your account later on. Some brokers may allow you to DRIP it, commission-free.

===> I don't know if "24/7 trading" will affect MSFTP, this tradeable phenomena... Has been working great for me up to last AUG, fwiw.

Wait about ex-div + 3 sessions. Note the lower of OPEN or CLOSE on that date. Draw a horizontal line at that price level. Enter a GTC order to re-accumulate your shares at this price level; roll it over if you get partial execution (you'll need large position & low commissions to play this scalp).

Draw a line in-between each quarter's vertical and horizontal line crossing - this is the MSFTP growth per quarter: the bitch does not go down.

Given ~2% growth per quarter, and ~2% APR, being re-invested, compounded every 90 days... MSFTP beats all known bond funds YTD ;-) Divide total % gains/year by 0.80 to calculate the taxable equivalent yield of doing this in an IRA.

The ex-div "scalp" is not really necessary, but WTH.

...the point is, when ever MSFT stock goes sideways or, decays - you can roll over to MSFTP "preferred"; ie., manage the MSFT:MSFTP ratio.

-Steve



To: Les H who wrote (32297)11/4/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Looks like a negative OBV divergence to me. I would expect softie to fall soon to work it off. Doesn't always happen, but odds are good.
JMHO