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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (32473)	11/5/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald:" dangerous to short the HiTECHs..." in a short-term, trading sense - I don't think so; though it would be important to pick the right horse ! fwiw, my QQQ chart says we just (Friday) nailed the apparent UpTrend trading-range channel upper TrendLine. A theoretical fib projection of upside extent says QQQ 139 +/-1 area so, that's why I ran the "harvester" over my CORE holdings Thursday & Friday, got % TXX.X sector allocation back in line with all the other BigBoy sectors in my CORE. DOW, I'm not sure if my chart is still meaningful {grin} but, I had a theoretical projection of 108.30 for extent, and my mo indicator is implying, "sell CCalls". It is possible that a DownTrend Line drawn from ORIGIN 25-AUG CLOSE to DOW 108.30 today defines a new, "wider" DownTrend channel; it would reflect a (parallel) lower, trading-range channel DownTrend Line drawn from origin 13-MAY CLOSE through CLOSE 18-JUN and CLOSE 15-OCT. so, my mo indicators are saying, "downwave" - even if it is nothing more than a "pull-back after breakout". I suspect SPY will resemble an evening star (or worse, an engulfing or dark cloud) and VIX.X a morning star, after Monday's session. >Concerning the DOW THEORY, the TRAN and UTY were down for the week, so no confirmation of the rally there... that's true, Don. imho, XAL.X and TYX.X are trying to figger out what CL99Z - CrudeOil = "Cost of Energy" is gonna do next. OIX.X (XOI.X without DD) lost -6.5% this week, and the bond pitz are watching CL futures and XOI index closely... *[ XOI : OSX* ] : [ TYX : XAL ]** ...is an almost "perfect" hedge - where "commodities" on the left are inversely related to "bonds" on the right. The OSX and XAL indices act like "leverage", amplifying XOI or TYX base investments' growth or decay, respectively. This is the classic "old money" family investment formula here in Texas, fwiw. For example, *[ XON : HAL* ] : [ TYX : CAL ]** Yee-Haw ! (^_^) -Steve

To: donald sew who wrote (32473)	11/6/1999 2:07:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

don, thanks for confirming that. >The weekly candlesticks for the DOW is a SMALL BLACK SPINNNING TOP and for the SPX a small WHITE SPINNING TOP.< I hadn't yet looked at the weekly chart, but remembering the numbers in my mind, I suspected that the SPX would have that kind of weekly candle. Your other analysis confirms my thoughts, mainly that if you look at most of the days this week on the intra-day chart, we have strong gap-ups, followed by slow decline, accelerating into an afternoon drop, followed by weak rally going into the close. If you consider actual buying, it looked to me like retail buying in the morning, with professional selling taking the baton most of the day. Not real bullish, IMO. More like mindless euphoria on the part of speculative buyers.