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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7100)	11/5/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

Sorry, I didnt grasp your point. Did you inadvertantly leave something out here? Thanks and all the best. < your comparison of Dell and Xerox don't apply so strongly for me when I think of Citrix or any of the high-tech companies I invest in that own proprietary, open technologies. That Dell and Xerox don't make them much more vulnerable than those that do.> ???

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7100)	11/6/1999 2:15:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9068

Mike, I wonder how many people we're boring with these discussions that allude to the idea that value is questionable. I suppose that the bored could always hit the next button. I think that this discussion speaks to the essence of investing (as opposed to trading). The key issue is valuation as opposed to 'value'. To my way of thinking they are quite different things. The value investor is one who hopes to find an under-appreciated stock. He bases his calculations on such metrics as tangible book value and trailing P/E. In essence, this view is static and/or backwards looking. By contrast, a valuation investor seeks to capitalize the future prospects of the company to arrive at some estimate of the risk-adjusted present value of future cash flows. Presumably, if that PV is greater than the stock price a buy would be signaled. Now, that's very nice in theory, but how does one measure the cash flows of a company like Citrix whose product offerings have little constraint because of the novelty of the conception? I have no easy answer for this. By contrast, other companies growth may be constrained by the fact that their offerings replace existing products in a well-defined market. In essence, they have a better mouse-trap. And here it is much easier to forecast cash flows. That's why the market valuation of companies like AMZN are insane. They are essentially retailers, and we know the size of the retail market, and we have reasonable forecasts for the growth of the retail sector. So the distinction I draw is that some growth companies prosper by taking market share from their competitors (Dell is a good example), while others prosper by creating markets (MSFT is a good example). I believe that SEBL is closer to Dell than MSFT in this characteristic, while CTXS is closer to MSFT than Dell. TTFN, CTC