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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SwampDogg who wrote (32108)11/6/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74651
 
Here's the problem with your analogy.

Unlike a company like MO, Microsoft does not sell a product which kills nearly half a million Americans every year and is the subject of nonstop, massive litigation. MO's tobacco business is valued at less than zero, and the stock has suffered because of it. In fact perhaps the best thing that could happen to MO stock would be if they simply ditched the tobacco biz altogether and spun it off. MO is a case where one of the parts hurts the whole.

MSFT - on the other hand - is comprised of numerous exciting and highly profitable businesses. I can assure you that at this very minute there are mutual fund managers down on their knees praying that Microsoft gets broken into several separate companies. IMHO Microsoft will start generating "Baby Bills" sooner or later anyway. So instead of the stock simply going up like it has been for years, Microsoft shareholders now face the exciting prospect that one or more of the parts may grow ten or a hundred-fold over.

Do not underestimate this company...and don't overestimate the effects of this event. Remember that Microsoft was able to turn its corporate strategy on a dime when it made the decision to pursue the internet business (albeit a little late).

Microsoft may have some liability, it may have to change some of its business practices, and it may be the subject of some more nuisance suits, but I can assure you that the total negative financial impact will be a drop in the bucket compared to what the tobacco companies are dealing with.

On my thread I wrote that this is the best buying opportunity of a high-quality large-cap tech stock since the "busy signal" fiasco with AOL. I'm now thinking that may be an understatement.