To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (15178 ) 11/6/1999 5:12:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 17770
Though Russian polls are notoriously questionable, Putin has clearly stormed on to the Russian political scene from relative obscurity - challenging the West's common conclusion that he is nothing but another Kremlin pawn, devoid of either agenda or political future. The Western portrayal of Putin looks increasingly inaccurate. ..Indeed, Putin is much more symptom than cause. Russia's die is cast. The great post-Communist economic and political experiment has failed. What remains to be seen is who will direct the backlash and how bad it will be. Vladimir Putin represents one option - and by no means the worst..... Putin, and thousands like him, was shaped by the single greatest mission in the history of the KGB -- the systematic restructuring of the Soviet economy, Soviet society and Soviet relations with the West in the hope of preserving the state and regime. The Soviet Union died but the operation never really ended. Putin and his fellow officers who attempted to save the Soviet Union through perestroika were scattered throughout a crippled, mutant economy. Some were caught up in the greed and corruption that have permeated the Russian economy for the last decade. Everyone got a piece of the action. But they remain patriots and some have not forgotten the mission. With Russia now on the cusp of collapse, we can expect these men to step forward. Most Russian observers have lumped Putin with the Kremlin looters. Yeltsin may have appointed Putin in hopes of saving the Kremlin "Family" from answering for its excesses, but Putin?s background suggests he is more than the tool of a dying regime. Putin is the heir apparent to Yevgeny Primakov. They are both children of perestroika. Today, Primakov eclipses Putin in the presidential polls. But Russia has reached the point at which the man matters less than the mission. Whether Putin, Primakov or some pretender wins the next election is not the issue. Russia?s current political and economic situation is unsustainable, and the country faces a choice: return power to the perestroikists ? open to Western investment but only under carefully controlled terms ? or surrender to reactionaries, who oppose Russia's kleptocrats. The reformists have had their chance; they have no legitimacy in Russia. In both the Duma elections and the presidential campaign, Russians appear prepared to give the perestroikists ? Putin, Primakov and others -- another chance. Ironically, that throws Russia?s future to the West. It will be up to Western leaders to accept or reject the return of a strong central government to Russia. It will be up to the West to decide whether they can work with Primakov and Putin. Washington, London and Bonn will face the dilemma between supporting the revival of a strong central government with a self-interested foreign policy, or isolating Russia, allowing it to collapse, and reaping a whirlwind of reactionary forces. Putin is one option. He is the man of the hour. He is no Sergei Kirienko, but neither is he Josef Stalin. There are others in his camp, including the leading presidential contender, Primakov. Together they represent a choice as significant for the West as for Russian voters. (back to top)stratfor.com