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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valley Girl who wrote (33017)	11/8/1999 3:25:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Valley Girl, Sounds like your have done your homework on this one. And you helped me decide what to do in the morning...so thanks. Did you take into account the change in the Microsoft business model which would come from the loss in options value of a prolonged "lethargy" in MSFT stock? Without the continued value of the formerly enourmous attraction of the options package, won't MSFT have to either pay more in cash, or cut back on employees at some point? If so, wouldn't the effect on earnings be negative -- if not immediately, then eventually? I hope you can find a way to deal with the tax consequences of anything you have to do on a rational basis -- your plight is another good reason that capital gains taxes should be eliminated in the U.S. Our current capital gains laws, at least in this case, impose the consequences of the Company's actions upon the shareholders.... I can't see that as being fair. Being no fan of the illegal aspects of MSFT's behavior, still, I can't help but believe that Microsoft is something akin to being a national asset:thataspect should be considered, as well as shareholder impact, when looking for (the minimum nececessary) remedies which will ensure that MSFT acts within the spirit and intent of the laws in the future. Good luck to you on your decisions... thanks for helping me make mine. tso

To: Valley Girl who wrote (33017)	11/8/1999 3:51:00 AM
From: Kevin Hay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

VG, thanks for posting that. I pretty much agree with all you said.., except the tax comment. Assuming it's all long term, it's 20%, yes? As a long term holder you get extra leverage by holding onto irs money while it continues to grow in your account, but if the growth assumptions of the stock change, best to get out. I'm not sure I'm as pessimistic as you on the price though. To me it's a given that msft will have to change it's licensing practices, minimum. so what does that mean? 1. some time in the next year or two it will become easier to get different software from the oem's. os, probably apps too. 2. this will result in 'some' market deterioration in, say 2-3 years. (small % imo) 3. running the business will get more cumbersome.., so perhaps a small addition to g&a to account for the extra auditing that will be required to ensure box makers aren't scamming them on units shipped, etc. I really don't think there'll be some huge settlement, so for the next 3-5 years I see virtually no hit to earnings.., past 3-5 years, what might happen vs. what is the current expectation of what will happen is what will drive the price imo. most companies with this kind of visibillity, would do fine, but we've got a Clint Eastwood judge and msft making his day, so there's no telling how far he might try to go..., uncertainty.., bad. for me, Friday was shock, Saturday was anger, Sunday was acceptance (to a degree) and now Monday we say, act? the msft I have I've held since '92, and I know the feeling of not wanting to write the big check to the IRS, but a smaller check just means smaller gains. long enough post.., will stop for now. thanks again for your post. -k ps. if you want humour, look at cherylw's posts. I'm not trying to be mean, but they really did get me rolling.