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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2661)	11/8/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

This is what I didn't understand about that Herschel Shosteck report. I love Jane Zweig to pieces - she's been extremely acute in many ways - but I don't get this prediction that the Japanese will suddenly vault to the top of the mobile telecom markets with 3G. The W-CDMA networks will be sold mostly to GSM operators. It takes imagination to see them suddenly flocking to NEC infra. If switching from Motorola to Ericsson is a scary leap for most operators - how much faith will it take to suddenly start buying network equipment from Asian companies with little GSM expertise? Consumer preferences aren't changed overnight, either. If Sony brand wasn't strong enough to break through some pretty nifty GSM and CDMA phones in USA and Europe, how easy will it be for Mitsubishi or Toshiba to make it? It's very hard to see what the market for W-CDMA phones without GSM or CDMA dual-mode features will be. The first networks aren't going to cover much more than the biggest urban centers. If most of the W-CDMA phones are going to include second-generation modes, these products can be easily framed as GSM or CDMA phones with third-generation "turbo-features". In 2002 you make cut-rate second generation voice calls for 3-5 cents a minute and use the 3G features for mobile data. That's going to leave the current manufacturers in the position to sell 3G as an extension of present services. Not some sci-fi paradigm shift that suddenly drops a Toshiba phone with videostreaming in the laps of consumers and operators who have never backed this brand. Tero

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2661)	11/8/1999 4:26:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Mr Fun....I have appreciated your comments on a variety of subjects and am glad to hear your thoughts on 3G. Unfortunately this is a topic on which we disagree. Thought you might like to read the following post.....Bob Craig on the Qualcomm thread transcribed portions of the conference calls that took place after the Ericsson/Qualcomm settlement. Message 11837388 I view the above statements as slightly differently than normal conference calls where management states everything is going great. They are commenting on a specific agreement that has been signed and the eventual flow of royalties....and the statements are relatively clear (IMO). However if the case does go to court....it seems to me that this favors Qualcomm. They will continue with their deployment of CDMA2000 (I havent heard of anyone making a blocking claim on this mode). If DDI/IDO deploy this during the 2001 timeframe, how long will NTT Docomo be able to survive without a 3G system? How tempting would it be for GSM operators to switch to CDMA2000 to get a head-start on other operators? Handset vendors who think 3G is a clean slate for them to get back in the game are sorely mistaken. 3G networks will not have the coverage of 2G for many, many years - so 3G phones will have to support 2G technology. This means: Multi-band, multi-mode phones for the foreseeable future. This has been an argument between Tero and I for awhile...Nokia has not been innovative in their CDMA product offerings. I think that this will hurt them when 3G does come along. The Korean/Japanese manufacturers will have a leg up in doing the most difficult mode of these handsets (wideband CDMA). Slacker

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2661)	11/9/1999 10:07:00 PM
From: Mephisto	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

From CBS MarketWatch Psion's take: Get out of the office David Levin, the chief executive of hand-held computer and software maker Psion PLC, doesn't have a laptop and carries his palm-top computer in his pocket. Speaking at the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter pan-European Internet conference, Levin said he believes executives need to learn how to unchain themselves from their desks by taking more advantage of hand-held mobile computing devices. "We believe the Internet will go into the pocket and this will have a dramatic impact on a number of businesses out there." Psion is best known for its major stake in Symbian Ltd, a joint venture with Ericsson AB (ERICY: news, msgs), Nokia Oyj (NOK: news, msgs), Motorola (MOT: news, msgs) and Matsushita. Along with developing software, Symbian has developed the EPOC operating system technology for smartphones and other devices. EPOC is generally expected to become the industry standard for these devices, but it's got competition from Microsoft Corp., which has developed a competing standard. Levin believes that Symbian's EPOC will become the standard operating system for these devices but does believe that Microsoft will strike back. Anybody who "isn't threatened by Microsoft every minute of the day" isn't paying attention to the marketplace, he said. He believes Symbian will be the first-to-market and that the software is in "pole position." He said digital mobile phone penetration has gone further in Europe and Asia than in the U.S. where PC usage is still highly popular. While the late 1990's have seen mass usage of mobile phones, 2000 to 2020 will see high usage of wireless information devices and smart phones, he said. By the year 2050, he said the market will see something called "e-shadow," which will sort out and select appropriate information and context aimed at consumers' and businesses' needs.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2661)	11/10/1999 8:29:00 PM
From: brian h	Respond to of 34857

Mr. Fun and Tero, Is Nokia only winning on being a "box maker"? Either Dr. IJ is hyping or you guys tried to argue for a lost cause. Welcome Nokia to be a nice CDMA "box maker". That is all. Read it and listen to Dr. IJ's webcast on QCOM site to see if you are up to the point understanding what HDR is before you guys claims Nokia wins. Tero, all you concern about Q's handsets business are answered from the following per IBD. ************************** Qualcomm Looks Past Phones, Sees Wireless Web, Data Access Date: 11/10/99 By: Reinhardt Krause Investor?s Business Daily Will wireless data services be the next frontier for Irwin Jacobs? The chief executive of San Diego-based Qualcomm Corp., Jacobs pioneered a digital cell-phone technology that didn?t take the industry by storm at first. Developed in the 1980s, it took a decade for code division multiple access, or CDMA, to catch on with wireless carriers. Now CDMA is the fastest growing U.S. digital wireless system. It?s spreading globally as a rival to Europe?s digital standard. Qualcomm?s shares have soared as a result. They closed up 10 3/8 to 299 3/4 Tuesday. Qualcomm?s fiscal fourth-quarter profit, boosted by royalties, beat analysts? views. But booming cell-phone calls aren?t enough for Jacobs. Now he hopes to make data services a big part of wireless communications. He talked with Investor?s Business Daily about Qualcomm?s plans. IBD: This week you showed an advance in wireless data. Could you describe it? Jacobs: We?ve developed HDR, which stands for high data rate. It supports faster Internet access in a way that?s compatible with existing equipment at CDMA carriers. It?s a relatively straightforward upgrade. With some incremental cost, they?ll be able to offer (subscribers) data services at a competitive price with respect to (high-speed phone lines) and cable-based Internet access. It?ll be a competitor for home Internet access, but it?ll have the advantage of being completely wireless. So you can move around the house or drive to the airport. IBD: Is HDR a steppingstone to third-generation (3G) wireless systems that speed up Internet access? Jacobs: It?s an alternative path if carriers chose to use it. It uses the same bandwidth as existing technology and as the first of the 3G systems to be deployed, which we call 1x. 1x is an evolutionary upgrade of existing CDMA that provides data rates of up to 384 kilobits per second. I?ve seen (wireless) data rates of over 1 megabit with HDR. 1x should be in place sometime next year. HDR will probably be a number of months after that, depending on arrangements with carriers and manufacturers. 3G will use a wider bandwidth signal. Standards still need to be finished, and there?s work to do in testing. HDR may be more efficient in use of spectrum than some 3G solutions, but we?re working on both so operators will have a choice. IBD: What kind of pricing will encourage use of wireless data services? Jacobs: We?ve been looking at models in the $20 to $40 range (a month), essentially providing relatively unlimited service and supporting high burst rates (for downloading). Of course, the actual numbers will depend on the operators. As with cable, if many people are using the service heavily at the same time, the throughput can slow down. But it?s always on. You don?t have to dial-up each time you want an Internet connection. IBD: What?s the status of Wireless Knowledge, your joint venture with Microsoft Corp. to provide Web-related network services to wireless operators? Jacobs: It?s moving ahead - more slowly than I might have liked. Some of the operators have been slower in rolling out data, but it?s happening now. There have been discussions between us and Microsoft on the best ways to go, and we?re probably in agreement at this point. IBD: Qualcomm is an investor in a satellite start-up Globalstar Telecommunications. Will there be demand for its services given the problems at rival Iridium LLC? Jacobs: In the case of Globalstar the (voice) quality is really very high. Iridium did a worldwide, expensive advertising campaign that wasn?t very specifically targeted. We?re going after specific groups. We?re going into a soft launch to make sure there are no surprises, that everything is working the way people want it to work. Probably by the beginning of the calendar year they'll be more paying customers on the system. IBD: Qualcomm plans to sell its handset business by year-end. Earlier in 1999, Qualcomm sold off its network gear business to L.M. Ericsson AB. Are you disappointed in the hardware business? Jacobs: We got into the infrastructure and the handset side for strategic reasons. We had to make sure equipment and phones were available. That allowed CDMA to spread and grow. But we did hope to make them profitable businesses. Ericsson wasn?t in CDMA before, so the deal was a plus for them and for us. In handsets, we?re still a small supplier. We have licensed 40 companies or so to make CDMA handsets. So pricing competition is greater. Another company might be better positioned to support our customers with higher margins and larger volumes. We are focused on implementing the technology in chip sets and software. The data market will lead people to buy new phones with more capabilities, and carriers will buy evolutionary equipment, which will help our chip set business. Brian H.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2661)	11/11/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Hello Mr Fun. Since Tero referred to your post as being the light in a dark firmament, I thought I better read it! You say the IPR rights for W-CDMA is unknowable until it goes to court. It went to court and Ericy caved in. Qualcomm has got the rights to their patents. Somebody else can of course dispute those rights. Good luck to them! They will spend a fortune on legal expenses and get nowhere except put their own position at risk. Qualcomm rights are very well established with very many licensees all signed up and paying. You think Ericy caved in front of the courthouse because they thought that Q! couldn't defend their W-CDMA rights? Sure, Ericy might extract W-CDMA royalties from companies other than Qualcomm and that might make Ericy IPR dollar flow essentially even. But Q! will rake it in. Nokia will definitely be paying the full IPR rent to Qualcomm and presumably a similar amount to Ericy [unless they worked in with Ericy and agreed to some sharing of W-CDMA]. In regard to Ericy [or Nokia or any other company for that matter] being a friend of Qualcomm, I think the best we could say is that they might have shared interests. Much as a shark and a hagfish have shared interests, though of course a hagfish will eat a shark if given a chance. They are definitely not friends in the normal sense of the word. Businesses are very rarely genuine friends. They inherently compete for capital, staff and customers. Ericy definitely has common interest with Qualcomm now [the CDMA division of Ericy anyway]. The GSM division of Ericy is now competing with the CDMA division and Qualcomm, though of course the GSM And CDMA divisions will be working together to try to make the cmda2000 clone as successful and unwarbly as they can, given that it has specs such as a wonky chip rate, odd synchronisation and clanky bells and shrill whistles. Your comments on Nokia buying from Q! if it suits them, fits my way of thinking. They'll do it themselves if they can, and buy from Q! if they can't. Read my previous post for the real reason for slow USA uptake of cellphones. Cheap wireline is not the real reason. In fact, wireline prices in the USA are NOT cheap. They are extorquerationate, though not as bad as European or Japanese. CDMA is a better 2G, 3G and 4G technology than obsolete GSM. Whether CDMA can put on a growth spurt [what do you call what it is doing right now?] and out grow GSM depends hugely on the relative merits of the two different 2G technologies. Sure, bombing China's embassy and blocking China on trade slowed CDMA down and fortress Europe imprisoned their citizens and stopped them experiencing the joys of capitalism and CDMA - forcing them into the GSM Goose-step. That will change. The light of freedom will shine once again across Europe. We agree that 3G will take years to spread across the world. The cdmaOne world will move quickly and smoothly and economically. The GSM world will be lumpy, slower and expensive and will probably need new spectrum to do it. The transition in WWeb is going to be rapid. Takeovers/mergers, price cutting, data competitions, technology transitions and total telecom mania will be huge for 10 years. Trillions of dollars will slosh around trying to maximize position. Nokia seems to be in one of the best positions. Ericy recovered well but has got a long way to go. Qualcomm is sitting in the box seat. The Fun has begun. Maurice