Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (33335)	11/9/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Duane, I'm not so sure that Microsoft is looking for an early way to settle, given the comments (or lack thereof) on the Lehrer Report on public television last evening. The attitude expressed by the Microsoft spokesman was a combination of stonewalling ("I'm not going to comment on anything legal. . .") and evasion, using words like "This is such a growing field and there's so much competition," etc. etc. If I were to predict what Microsoft will do, I would say that they will offer to give away peanuts and stall on the rest, hoping for a political solution served up by a Republican administration in 2001. This strategy, however, will not foreclose actions by companies such as IBM, Apple, AOL, Sun, Caldera, etc., who may now be emboldened not necessarily to sue but to negotiate special deals that will compensate them for past abuses. Above all, it is now clear that Microsoft will have to be far more careful in its Internet related moves, making sure that it doesn't display any behavior similar to what the court cited (mostly from Microsoft documents). Thus, the playing field has now become a bit more level for smaller competitors of Microsoft, which translates into lower margins in new growth areas. The AA rating given Microsoft yesterday by Standard & Poor's was partly responsible for the price stability. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal echoed many of the pro Microsoft sentiments on this thread, giving support to institutions holding the shares. But a careful review of future prospects will convince a growing number of portfolio managers that, even at this point in the litigation, Microsoft will not find the going as easy as before. Long term, I expect this stock to kinda sit there and do very little over the next couple of years. That, coupled with the growing disparity between the prices of some high tech stocks and their intrinsic value, suggests a period of consolidation where many of the older war horses in this field will underperform. Among the older stocks, IBM, however, looks like a very good opportunity if it is able to secure some "helpful" treatment from Microsoft to compensate for past indiscretions.