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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (3136)	11/9/1999 7:53:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

I didn't notice at first that SEBL put out the press release. I suspect they thought the lawsuit was as ridiculous as I did. The market's speculative frenzy is getting beyond irrational..... On a comparable basis, sebl is relatively cheap. There are no other end to end players left, and compared to bvsn, vign, arba, cmrc sebl is a value stock. I hate using relative valuation to justify a holding. "He's really honest, I promise. You can trust bill clinton much more than you can trust saddam hussein." I used that on the yahoo thread. By traditional means, sebl is overpriced. However, if you use a long term discounted earnings model and IF the company can FLAWLESSLY sustain growth of 40% to 60% for AT LEAST 3 years, then it may be more rationally priced. IMO, that is a big if. The market is huge, but that is a lot of execution to need to keep up a lofty valuation. SEBL is still crippled (as most software companies are) by the deadly perpetual licensing model. Once they sell a customer a product, they have to sell MORE customers or products the next year to grow. (Yes i know they have maintenance, but with the current business model, SEBL will die the same death that PSFT and SAP are dying.) I'm puzzled by the company's less than enthusiastic response to the ASP business model. We also have the issue of absolute meaningless companies like KANA which sells a tiny tiny subset of what sebl and clarify sell (e-mail prioritization? I could get a robust product running in that segment in 3 months and I haven't written any code since my Pascal days!) Kana has a $5 billion market cap! What is wrong with this market? It is beyond preposterous. I can't wait to get another real tech wreck, then we'll be able to pick up some pieces. The problem is, between MSFT and Y2K if they're not causing it, I don't know what will. Still holding my SEBL, but worried about valuation and perpetual licensing. I also have no idea where else to put it, we own enough network infrastructure. TD