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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carson who wrote (44523)	11/9/1999 8:06:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

John, Thanks for bringing up a very timely subject... just how do you tell what this cotton pickin market is going to do. As you may know, I use weekly indicators developed from years of watching Barron's figures. And then I have literally dozens upon dozens of charts and indicators I hold dear to me. But how can you make sense of this market, as you aptly put it! Out of sheer desperation, I graded all my charts arbitrarily and for the best of the best (5 of them) I simple added together the indicators on each which I believe have been working for the past 6 months. Nothing complex - if an indicator is bearish I grade it as a -1 and bullish gets a +1. Yes, I wrote down the standards to be able to, hopefully, give the same grades in similar situations. If the indicator was especially good I use 2 instead of 1. If it is a question as to whether it is plus or minus, I give a 0. What kind of results have I been getting? Well not perfect, but eons ahead of what I was using before. The combined indicator which I plot just like a stock or index, gives very good buys and sells and so forth. On top of that, I have another 13 charts I look at which confirm or deny what the main indicator is saying. I occasionally plot those on my web site... one is out there now! Out of the 13, about 5 I really pay attention to. One of them goes through 4 phases for each move up and each move down... we are in phase 2, maybe 3 today (haven't looked yet) of the down move. And my main indicator HAS NOT YET given any sign of a buy... although it would only take one strong up-day, IMHO, to trigger a partial buy. And yes, I am still in the puts I bought late last week after getting a sell signal. And yes, they are worth more than what I paid for them (not much... but at least would pay brokers costs). So yes, this is a very difficult market to trade, one of the worst in my experience over the last 30 some odd years of trading. But I have learned a lot from it and it has driven me to do something I should have done a long time ago... build a composite indicator. Good luck and I haven't a clue whether the QQQs may turn out valuable tomorrow or not - even though you didn't buy them. Bill