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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2208)	11/11/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Hello Ron, Please excuse the delay on this answer. >>Yes, ... the boom will eventually end, but it will probably be the result of a demographic or crisis related event (world war.. etc), and everyone else will suffer just as terribly.<< I agree completely.....The recent turn up in the VLE and the RUT gives a lot of support to the notion that these economic facts in place today will continue for an extended period....without unexpected calamity. Yea, they'll be corrections and mild bear markets, but I do not expect a crash without some catalyst. BTW, I just read in the Wallstreet Journal 11/11/99 pg B8 that 2000 will be a peak cycle in Solar Storms and the U.S. power supplies are vulnerable as well as navigation and communication satellites. It will last through 2002. This might be the big surprise? Chip

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2208)	11/11/1999 12:38:00 PM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Ron,The opposing argument: I think spending above income is limited by the depletion of spendable savings, non-retirement account savings, and a level of accumulated debt as a multiple of income. Aggregate statistics are misleading in this area. Household quintile data shows a more constraining picture. The argument that asset appreciation justifies excessive household debt could have been used by the Japanese in their bubble. Debt pay-back periods and the percentage debt /assets are forms of this rationalization. Since corporate earnings and employment are functions of spending growth, once we reach the point spending is constrained by income growth, the boom is over! and the crisis has begun! In my opinion, this will occur long before demographics predicts because of the above reasons. (Our present situation is no different than the past housing booms and busts.) Skeet