Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (74619)	11/10/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

As someone who implements time series methods and subjective analysis for business forecasting, let me say this: all forecasting methods are merely descriptive. Money flow analysis is a method of analyzing local price conditions, while TA purports to describe global conditions. Their descriptions are valid in different time scales. And although TA enthusiasts claim TA to be scale-invariant in time, I suspect that it is not (same with money flow - it is a short or intermediate term predictor at best). Making a priori predictions about future prices based on historical money flow or TA involves a leap of faith - will historical relationships continue to hold? Or are we at a point at which the relationships may change? As a professional, I express this uncertainty in terms of probabilities. Or I provide a set of confidence intervals for my forecasts. In the end it is a matter of judgement or even guesswork, since even these tools are based on the volatility inherent in these historical relationships. AA P.S. I hope I didn't sound like ahhaha here.