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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (7329)	11/10/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Stitch, Thanks for the report on Fujitsu. But what sense does this paragraph make (in particular, the first line): <<T. Yamamoto covers Fujitsu and estimates that Fujitsu's operating profit for its HDD business will decline to (Y20B) in FY1999 from Y10B in FY1998. The desktop HDD business is estimated to be approximately 60-70% of Fujitsu's total HDD units and approximately 50% of the company's total HDD revenues.>> Isn't "Y20B" greater than "Y10B"? If Fujitsu actually does exit the desktop business, this would be wonderful news for the independents. It may not be as good news for Seagate, though, as they would focus more on their high end business. It seems plausible to me that they have probably already made a decision, and Sanders didn't agree with it. Perhaps they are trying to find a buyer so that they don't have to eat it all in restructuring costs, it is over 60% of the business. Would Seagate be interested in their desktop business, do you think? Do you have any idea who their main customers are, how much overlap would there be? But I have to agree with Robert and his analyst here, rising prices may be good short term, for the next quarter or two, but a good forest fire is sometimes necessary to restore long term health to the whole forest. Smokey the Bear be damned. My favorite speculation right now has Fujitsu and WDC exiting the desktop, and Seagate buying Maxtor for $2-2.5 billion after they (SEG) get their stock price up to the 50s or 60s. This would help the supply/demand balance immeasurably, and would restore some health to the sector (unless, of course, Samsung or IBM decide that they want more, more more on the desktop). I don't think it is a coincidence that Seagate is buying back 50 million shares. If they can get them under 40, and get the stock in the 60s, Maxtor would be easy for them to buy, and would cure their desktop woes immediately. It would also help Maxtor, HDD and Seagate themselves, not to mention WDC if they are hanging around to saved by another big merger. Dreaming of the glory years of 1995-97, after Seagate bought Conner and before Fujitsu, IBM, Maxtor made their fateful moves. Nice dream.

To: Stitch who wrote (7329)	11/10/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 9256

Stitch, thanks for the Fujitsu news! A question: IBM announced an 'IBM Hi-FD 200" drive. Last year Sony failed to market their Hi-FD drive and it it still in limbo or cancelled. Could it be Sony is making this IBM Hi-FD for IBM? I doubt very much IBM suddenly got into super floppies. Here's the IBM announcement... ibmlink.ibm.com Gottfried