To: Cathi Wierzbicki who wrote (15952 ) 11/11/1999 1:53:00 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
Cathi, I think it is a combination of factors. First, as John noted, the order is not in the class of "material", as important as it might be. Second, the fact that it is not sold directly to the OEM but through an intermediary, means that the profit margins on this order would be below the standard expected margins. Third, there is a lot of supply of stock here at around $6 (remember that that was the lower part of the range in the first six months this year) and until this supply is taken out, a drastic move is bound. Fourth, unless other orders come in that will exploit the current capacity, cash will still need to be raised, and unless this cash is at better prices than the recent financing, dilution could still be a problem. Fifth, the market may realize that profitability will not be there for at least another four quarters (when production rates reach double current burn rates). Sixth, some investors that bought between $8 and $11 earlier this year may be using this rally to take some short term capital losses. All these factors, both fundamental one and technical ones are holding the price. I believe that under these circumstances, I think that the stock will slowly drift back to the low $5 toward the end of the month. If everything still looks good, VLNC could be an excellent candidate for a year end rally and particularly price appreciation in the first few weeks of next year. Having said all these, the question is no longer if VLNC can produce a product for which there is a market (or at least the perception has changed), but when will they turn the corner and how much more dilution one should expect before that. Zeev