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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cathi Wierzbicki who wrote (15952)11/11/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Cathi, I think it is a combination of factors. First, as John noted, the order is not in the class of "material", as important as it might be. Second, the fact that it is not sold directly to the OEM but through an intermediary, means that the profit margins on this order would be below the standard expected margins. Third, there is a lot of supply of stock here at around $6 (remember that that was the lower part of the range in the first six months this year) and until this supply is taken out, a drastic move is bound. Fourth, unless other orders come in that will exploit the current capacity, cash will still need to be raised, and unless this cash is at better prices than the recent financing, dilution could still be a problem. Fifth, the market may realize that profitability will not be there for at least another four quarters (when production rates reach double current burn rates). Sixth, some investors that bought between $8 and $11 earlier this year may be using this rally to take some short term capital losses.

All these factors, both fundamental one and technical ones are holding the price. I believe that under these circumstances, I think that the stock will slowly drift back to the low $5 toward the end of the month. If everything still looks good, VLNC could be an excellent candidate for a year end rally and particularly price appreciation in the first few weeks of next year.

Having said all these, the question is no longer if VLNC can produce a product for which there is a market (or at least the perception has changed), but when will they turn the corner and how much more dilution one should expect before that.

Zeev



To: Cathi Wierzbicki who wrote (15952)11/11/1999 2:26:00 PM
From: Jibacoa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
<<<Whatever the reason, it is disappointing that today's "material event" got such a lukewarm response.>>>

I suppose 12% gain on a 1 million volume for the day(which it seems is what VLNC is going to end doing today) is a "lukewarm" response since we are getting used to the 100% or more gains for the day.

Bernard



To: Cathi Wierzbicki who wrote (15952)11/11/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: mooter775  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 27311
 
Cathi,

Response to today's call is ok. CC continues to sell their remaining B tranche shares, but in so doing, while not driving down the price, increasingly exposes the naked short position.

Clearly, if CC remains unhedged on their B tranche, which they have continually, even last week, claimed to Valence management, then there are about 1.5 mm naked shorts out there. Know any of them???

Rumor has it thatCC apparently asked to BUY an additional 1.0 mm shares late last week, as a modest discount to the market. Company told them to F.O. in so many words - and lo and behold - the stock began to get hit on Monday.
REDI has sold about 500,000 shares since midday Monday, and they are often used as a CC vehicle.

Despite this, stock has moved up.

THE REAL HAMMER WILL COME WHEN THE COMPANY ANNOUNCES THE SECOND AND THIRD ORDERS - PRETTY SOON NOW - AND THE SHORT SELLERS THROW IN THE TOWEL.

I expect we will see CC convert the remaining shares of their B tranche before that, but that's okay. When cleaning out the privy, better to be sure and scape up all the remaining crap.

If you are short, Cathi, and I suspect you are, you probably have as much as 2-4 weeks to cover, before you find the impact of second or third orders for Valence batteries.

Good luck.