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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (33192)	11/11/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: John T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

DELL 18 cents; Misses Whisper # of 19 cents. Trading up in after hours. Go figure??????

To: donald sew who wrote (33192)	11/11/1999 5:13:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, if no cycle inversion occurs, the market should rally well into July 2000....however, in view of the characteristics of the NAZ rally (extremely high volume, no more caution) a cycle inversion can not be ruled out. note that the latest advance from the Nasdaq low in mid October until today has already produced a move that's slightly bigger percentage-wise than the final blow-off move in the Nikkei in '89 and three times faster. the Nikkei needed a little less than three months to produce a similar move. the psychological backdrop however was similar...and the fundamental backdrop came close (only difference: positive savings rate and current account surplus in Japan) to being the same. i am considering that this blow-off could possibly be proportioned as a fibo multiple of it's Japanese predecessor, but that's just a hunch at this time. if the near term cycle projections hold, it would actually be possible for the market to go much higher until July next year...unless the next cycle downturn gets resolved in the form of a crash, that would require a re-assessment of the situation. however, this seems highly unlikely at this time. the only thing a bit bothersome about that statement is that everybody's saying that. apparently fund managers look only one way right now, unlike NYSE members and specialists who seem to be betting the other way. still, from a seasonality standpoint the ideal time period for a strong downturn has passed. what's more, there is a lot of liquidity sloshing around, even though some of that was absorbed by recent IPO's. the Fed has officially adopted a tighter stance, but the money supply data put the lie to that....apparently they just don't dare cutting the bubble's air supply off, for fear of the consequences. the other side of that coin is that the adjustment when it finally comes will be all the more painful. anyone remember the post where i mentioned that the previous record a/d line divergence dating from 28/29 may be surpassed by a fibo multiple this time around? i still haven't worked the actual numbers out, but we're certainly getting there. i'll post the numbers over the week-end... regards, hb