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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Walt Deemer who wrote (33283)	11/12/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Walt Deemer: I looked at the chart your linked and it seem to me to miss most of the drops. Last year's drop and was not in the warning area nor was a warning given before the 1987 drop. In 86, 91 and 95 it went to its highest levels, these all proceeded bull runs. No offense, I fail to see the topping predictive value of this indicator. What am I missing? Regards, LG

To: Walt Deemer who wrote (33283)	11/12/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Walt, great indicator. How about using 1.15 as a threshold? I see in 1987 it peaked somewhere around July - could you please give us the actual date and reading at the peak? The pattern looks similar now (to me) in that we peaked in July ? at around 1.15 and now have reached a higher NAZ on a lower reading, a divergence, while SPX, NYA, Dow have not, also very similar to the new high in the NAZ early October 1987. Just talking about the pattern, not the crash. Thanks, Vitas

To: Walt Deemer who wrote (33283)	11/13/1999 12:38:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Walt, Now that I have had a chance to examine your chart I see that the initial warning given in 1986 was followed by the divergent lower peak in 1987 and led to trouble. The peak in 1995 was followed by a second peak over the threshold level, and then a third peak in October 1997, which led to trouble, and then another lower peak in April of 1998, which led to more trouble. Presumably the effect of that is over and we need to look for another peak over the threshold level, and then a secondary and perhaps tertiary lower peak after that? Vitas