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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob who wrote (14869)11/12/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: Rande Is  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
XYBR and NETP both with incredible IBM news. . . .I have a feeling that now that XYBR has released its earnings, that Monday could see an important announcement . . but this is purely speculation. But considering that Monday morning is the first day of COMDEX in Las Vegas. . .and considering that XYBR has a booth there. . . and IBM has those commercials. . .well. . .it just "feels" good. . .what can I say?

NETP has broken free of the short pressure. . . and I hope everyone loaded their boats this week when I said. . . .at what price? $31 or so? Because once that news takes effect. . . coupled with the natural advertising mania and fairly low float. . . .look out. . . my prediction of $60 near-term could happen before anybody thought possible.

Rande Is



To: Bob who wrote (14869)11/12/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: KevinThompson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
XYBR

Please be careful. I sold out of my position in XYBR last month, but I have relatives that are still long. I want to say that I honestly don't know what will happen, but I am very skeptical at this stage. Please don't interpret this message as bashing or throwing cold water, because really - I don't know what will happen, and I hope that everyone on this thread that has a position in XYBR makes money on it and I wish everyone here nothing but the best of luck. Don't accept what I say or what others on this board say without doing your own research. Always check it out yourself. -> This thread has been a great source for information and our captain (Rande) is great teacher.

I am concerned because I feel (obviously subjective) a certain amount of mistrust of the this company's officers. I believe that they are desperate to keep a positive momentum going, and that they will go to great lengths to carefully craft and spin facts. This is just my feeling, and I could definitely be wrong.

Their product is revolutionary, but at what cost? Perhaps that is why they haven't had the revenues that the CEO continues to predict. Compared to a web enhanced Palm Pilot or any number of other similar products that are or can be web enabled - costing around $200 or $300, why would consumers pay upwards of $3000 if what they need is modest information storage and retrieval, and mobil/portable internet access? This issue really hit home with me. I realize that perhaps their real market is intended for industrial use, but isn't this still going to be a tough sell if new products are coming to market that accomplish what a particular industry or company is looking for at a tenth the cost?

The other thing that really bothers me are the press releases themselves, quoting the CEO - from the PR today:

...Our advanced discussions with IBM and others regarding potential collaboration on wearable PCs are exciting in that, if finalized, we can expect to develop this market much faster than we previously believed was possible."

But that same CEO in 1998 was forecasting revenues of $40M !!! If predictions of $40M in revs are conservative estimates (according to today's PR), how much faster are they really expecting to develop this market??? It doesn't make sense to me.

From Briefing.Com, May 1999:

...The company reported its Q1 results today -- a loss of $0.20 a share from a $0.10 loss in the year-ago period (actual loss rose to $4.2 mln from $1.5 mln, but an increase in shares held down the per share loss). Revenues rose to a meager $654,163 -- no zeros missing there, it's just $654K. The company noted that sales have not exploded yet due in part to a shift to a more conservative revenue recognition method, but that so-called conservative method simply involved not booking revenues until resellers either sold XYBR products or at least paid for them. That doesn't sound overly conservative to us. When Briefing.com wrote about XYBR back in November after their presentation at the AEA conference, we noted that XYBR's claims of $35 mln in 1999 revenue "should send the skepticism meter into the red zone." Undaunted, XYBR has now upped its estimate to $40 mln. That's right -- revenues were $654K in Q1, but they will total $39.3 mln in the remaining three quarters of the year, despite no obvious evidence that there is a sizable market for the wearable computer.

Maybe the market for wearable computers is expanding, but I would urge an approach with caution.

These are only my opinions. Good luck to all.

KevinT