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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (11131)	11/15/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

ATT freezing installation of new systems prior to Y2K. What is the effect on LU and other telecom equipment vendors? AT&T to Institute Quiet Period Ahead of Y2K WASHINGTON (Reuters) - AT&T Corp (NYSE:T - news)., the No. 1 U.S. long-distance company, said on Monday it will not introduce any new software or hardware or support systems during the last days of 1999 and into the new year. ``To maintain a state of readiness and further protect against potential Y2K-related service disruptions, AT&T is instituting a special 'quiet period' from Dec. 1, 1999 through Jan. 15, 2000,' the company said in its quarterly earnings report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The huge telecommunications group also said it will limit provisioning and scheduled maintenance during that period. The so-called ``Y2K bug' could prevent some computers from distinguishing the year 2000 from 1900 because of old shortcuts that recorded the year with only two digits. Unless fixed, this could disrupt everything from airlines to hospitals to communications systems. AT&T, based in New York City, said it has spent about $675 million since 1997 preparing its systems for the century date change and will likely expend another $64 million during the rest of 1999. Plans are also being drawn up to place personnel at key locations to monitor operations and increase in work and call volumes and engineer more network capacity as the new year draws near, AT&T said. The company will also stage supplemental power, fuel, water, heating, air conditioning and ventilation sources to support critical business operations and personnel requirements. As of the end of September, ``AT&T's network services and AT&T-developed applications and their external interfaces are year 2000 compliant,' the company said.

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (11131)	11/16/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: John Malloy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

You miss the point of my post about the "Buy-and-Hold" strategy. 1. Take any hot growth stock that is growing rapidly and selling at a high price/book ratio today. 2. When you estimate what that stock is worth, recognize that today's rapid growth and high price/book ratio cannot continue unchanged forever. Forecast that growth will slow and the price/book ratio will gradually fall as the firm matures. Use whatever decay pattern you thnk is reasonable. 3. Now calculate what the stock is worth assuming you will hold the stock for 1, 2, 3, etc years. You will find that what the stock is worth today increases the longer you plan to hold it, up to some critical investment period. The stock's value peaks at that point, then falls off at longer investment periods. Given the forecasts I used for Microsoft's growth rate and price/book ratio, what Microsoft is worth today peaks if I plan on a two-year investment period. The two years applies only to an investment today. It has nothing to do with investments made in the past. Use different forecasts and Microsoft's value will peak at some other time. But it will peak somewhere. That means you cannot blindly "Buy-and-Hold". You need to revalue a stock frequently, and decide whether to sell or keep holding. John Malloy