Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eli74 who wrote (16184)	11/15/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Larry Brubaker	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 27311

Nice day, guys, congratulations, and hope this is not just another hype spike like we saw this time last year. A little reality check. Current shares outstanding (fully-diluted) ~ 37 million. Assume additional shares required to fund operations for the remainder of 99, all of 2000, plus acquire equipment needed to get from $40 million to $80 million, to $250 million = 5 million. Therefore, assume Y2001 shares outstanding = 42 million. Assume Y2001 sales = $250 million. Assume Y2001 net profit margin = 15% (ROV net margin = 4.6%). Y2001 net profit = $37.5 million. Y2001 EPS = .89. Based on these assumptions, the current price of $7.75 results in a 2-year forward-looking PE ratio of 9. Obviously, if everything goes right over the next 2 years and these assumptions come true, the PE ratio would be much higher than 9 by the end of 2001. But IMO, based on what we know now, a 2-year forward-looking PE ratio of 9 seems quite generous. But who knows, maybe it will get even more generous in the near future. Good luck with it. Personally, if I had bought in the $5's and the price approached $10 (without any additional confirmation of the above scenario via additional PO's), I'd take some profits. But that's me. Since this thread is filled with multi-millionaires who get the inside scoop from management on a daily basis, I'm sure nobody needs my advice:-)