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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob who wrote (15301)11/19/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: Joe Smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
HMQT: Wind Reports Strong Q3. Raising Revenue Estimates, Price Target to $60.
(First Call 11/19 07:44:20)

07:42am EST 19-Nov-99 Hambrecht & Quist (Matt Belkin) WIND INTC LU LBRT INTC.GW
**** Hambrecht & Quist **** Hambrecht & Quist **** Hambrecht & Quist ****

Company: Wind River Systems
Price: 35
Recommendation: Buy
Notes: a, b,f
Analyst: Matt Belkin 415-439-3585
Date: 11/18/99

Wind Reports Strong Q3. Raising Revenue Estimates, Price Target to $60.

* Wind reported a strong Q3. Revenues of $44.6 mil easily beat our $41.9 mil
estimate.
* Earnings were in line with our 17" expectation as Wind continues to invest
in the post-PC opportunity.
* Wind continues to gain momentum in the embedded market, as evidenced by
several strategic agreements announced during the quarter including Intel and
Lucent, as well as Liberate's announcement that Cable and Wireless will begin
to deploy its set-top box technology.
* We continue to believe Wind represents an excellent play on the whole
Internet appliance and Internet infrastructure opportunity and expect more
agreements of a similar nature in the near future.
* As a true provider of Internet-enablement technology, we believe Wind is
capable of achieving a valuation similar to that of its target markets and are
raising our price target to $60, or 13x times our new sales estimate of $205
million, up from $190.
* A conference call is scheduled for tomorrow morning at 8am PST, after which
we will issue a full report.

1999 A 2000 E 2001 E
Q1 EPS $0.10 $0.10a $
Q2 EPS 0.13 0.14a
Q3 EPS 0.16 0.17a
Q4 EPS 0.19 0.20
FY EPS 0.58 0.61 0.75
FY REVS (M) 131.9 166.7 205.0
CY EPS 0.61 0.75 --
CY P/E 57 46 --

FY Ends Jan Current Price $35
52-Week Range $11-35 Market Cap (M) $1539.6
Shares Out (M) 43.99 Book Value $3.99
Net Cash/Share $1.68 3-Year EPS Growth 35%



To: Bob who wrote (15301)11/19/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Rande Is  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Nope! No way. . . I have been holding my LDIG with both hands. . .even tighter than my LQID. . . especially after so many music deals signed recently and so much time passing without news by LQID. . .so I would sell a position of my LQID to buy some NETP. . . even though I still believe LQID will eventually be bought out by LDIG. But LDIG is just too important. The whole broadband internet will be a tremendous achievement, but will have a voracious appetite for content. Content providers are few and far between. . .and T's LMG.a and LDIG are stepping up to the plate, buying up whatever companies they need to position themselves to be a premier supplier of content. LDIG also makes its gains all at once. . . it sits around for a few days, then suddenly it pops 4 or 5 points, then sits at a bit higher place for several days, then bam. . .another pop. . .look at a 10 day, to see what I mean. Still don't like the way NETP has been shorted back, but it looks low enough to begin positions again with little risk, IMO. . . and hopefully it will get some news next week that will break this log jam.

Hope that helps. . . . Also, I would be trying to buy NETP a whole lot lower than 36 . . it is in the $33s now. . must have been a typo. . . I'd be looking around $29.50.

On other fronts. . . OMKT is a great short here around $37 1/4.

VNCI smells bad. . . why the runup leading to nothing? What was that? Some sort of set-up intended to trap shareholders? I don't like it. I'd rather step out and miss a gain than put my money on the line and get a bad earnings report that sends it sharply lower.

ATHM, I believe will break resistance and keep breaking out.

I expect some sell-off today for weekend. . .but only modest. . . still not playing much of the big ones. . . I did not like bellweather LU dropping nearly 2 points today. . . that gives me an indication of things to come with the techs, IMO. MSFT, INTC, etc. all pulling markets down. . . I am mostly in pennies for safety, if you could believe it. . . don't suggest anyone follow. . .unless your stomach is made of titanium alloy.

And don't forget. . . bears are hungry and are taking positions today.

Rande Is

Rande Is



To: Bob who wrote (15301)11/19/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Rande Is  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
I hope you heeded my warning today and kept your LDIG!! + 4 5/8

EDIT: I just took some profits near 50! Will reload later in the day.

Rande Is