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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (33829)	11/20/1999 12:06:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

MAX; The Rub is The HOT stocks in NDX are what is holding the SPX UP, as they are in both. The value line stocks in the S&P are all so low already. quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=2ym So now the rub is as the NDX falls it's going to cause the SPX to fall like a rock too, & crossing below it will be hard to do..the NDX stocks have just about taken over the leader ship in the SPX. Just check the market caps. They are in bed together and the NDXers now have the cap to dominate the SPX. Market cap indexing and index tracking funds using a derivative swapping scheme have arranged all of this for us. Jim

To: LTK007 who wrote (33829)	11/20/1999 2:10:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

re: crazier and crazier: A small number of stocks dominate QQQ. If you take any one of those stocks, pick a valuation yardstick, and look at the longterm range, there is a clear pattern. It doesn't matter whether you use AMAT or YHOO or CSCO or QCOM. It doesn't matter whether you use price to sales, price to earnings, price to cash flow. The story is the same. In 1999, those valuations have soared far above their historical ranges. You can't predict the future if something is happening that has never happened before. I shouldn't say "never". These manias have happened before, but the last time in the U.S. ended 70 years ago. And so much has changed since then, it's hard to draw useful analogies. Stock prices (at least for the QQQ stocks) have become totally divorced from their fundamentals, and are now driven entirely by liquidity and sentiment. No one can predict when that group emotion will change from fear (of missing the party) to fear (that the party is ending). The turn will be sudden, and, by definition, most people will miss it. If the market can ignore 3 fed raises (how many were ignored in 1987, before the crash?), it can ignore Y2K easily. Can the market ignore an unemployment rate below 4%? A 4th fed hike? A 5th? Oil at 30$/B ?? The answer depends on group psychology, not reproducible economic statistics. The above is a long-winded way of saying: I don't know, and I don't think there is any way to know.

To: LTK007 who wrote (33829)	11/20/1999 7:30:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

max90: I do not usually chart the QQQ, but I do chart the COMPX, NYA and SPX. This market has already gone up further than I expected. My scenario for months has been an expectation the Market and Bond Rates would begin to head down before the end of the year starting sometime around the middle of November of this year. Either the equities market as measured by the major indices has started a new parabolic run like the one, which began off the Oct 98 low, or this is a last spike from that same run. The majority seems to think the former. If so, my investment portfolio biscuits got baked in the squat...<g> I have not had the time to go over my charts this weekend, so I am going to reserve further comment until I have. Regards, LG