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To: Eric L who wrote (51255)	11/21/1999 4:49:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Eric, you sure do keep a guy on the straight and narrow. Okay, cdmaOne might not be wiping the floor with GSM and TDMA in the USA, but I saw that CDMA now has about double the number of GSM subscribers in the USA and GSM got a head start and for a while was way ahead. TDMA is similarly falling behind cdmaOne subscriber numbers, though doing okay because of ATT. But TDMA is a blind ally [BleedingEDGE notwithstanding]. Okay, via GPRS, ATT gets a head start, but where does that lead to? HDR will be out and running in 2001 with a much more efficient air interface and therefore cheaper prices [electonic gizzard being similarly priced per kilogram]. 2002 to replace analogue? Heck, that's slow. I'm with Tero that rapid handset replacement is going to drive the wireless world. That tendency will put pressure on analogue sooner than people expect. The USA has only just got reasonable competitors with good coverage and prices so watch out from now on. I'll stick with 2000 for the analogue to cdmaOne tsunami in USA. Well, the stage is set. Mq PS: Check out these Dataquest figures. Look at CDMA go! Wow....<The most important highlight within the digital space this quarter continues to be the tremendous growth of code-division multiple access (CDMA IS-95). CDMA is now not merely the top-selling handset in the U.S. market, it is actually increasing the distance between itself and its competitors (see Table 1). Moreover, CDMA subscribers are positioned to surpass TDMA subscribers to become the largest digital subscriber segment of the U.S. market before the end of the year. Table 1 U.S. Digital Mobile Handset Market by Technology Technology 1998 Share (%) Q1/99 Share (%) Q2/99 Share (%) CDMA 38.0 45.7 47.0 TDMA 46.1 39.9 38.7 GSM 15.9 14.5 14.3 >

To: Eric L who wrote (51255)	11/21/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

This is the real kicker. 12 months ago I would have agreed with you. However, ATT/BT will kick the shit out of any network in the world by 2002 for voice and data services. Can't believe I'm saying that but just watch. Cellnet's data initiatives happen to be the most advanced in the world and as you know CDMA is just learning to spell DATA,. Wow....Now this surprises me. The one question I have never really settled in my mind is why Europe is even going to 3G if EDGE provides everything that 3G does except for 2mps in a non-mobile environment. It seems rather excessive to spend billions to provide this ONE capability. The only answer I have come up with is spectrum efficiency (I assume that they will get EDGE to work....no guesses on time frame).... Do you have any idea as to either the spectrum efficiency of GPRS/EDGE or the capacity constraints the European operators may be facing? As I understand it, the European operators will be getting additional spectrum to deploy 3G services on. This would allow them to start up data services without effecting the existing voice services. If AT&T/BT are successful with EDGE then I would think that they will face the same type of problems that AT&T faced when One-Rate took off.....too many users on too little spectrum. Only this time the problem would be multiplied many times since the data rates would be so much higher. Thanks for the continued international perspective..... Slacker