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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (7205)	11/21/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Respond to of 9719

Andreas, <<BTW what do you think about the recent stop of the Biogens Antova trials? I wonder why this serious setback to Biogens pipeline combined with the impending loss of orphan drug protection for Avonex in a few years did not do more damage to Biogens share price. I will probably sell half of my Biogen shares.>> This questions I am asking myself several times a day for last three weeks. It only indicate that market is in trend and momentum mode and currently there is no force/rationale which may change this altitude for a while. Devastating for third-tire comps when they are temporary out of favor, and crazy performance when they suddenly become discovered. I love it. :) Miljenko Miljenko Andreas

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (7205)	11/21/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9719

Andreas, The second part re BGEN is easier. The stock is holding up because Avonex sales continue to exceed expectations. In addition royalties from Schering are going to improve as a result of robust sales of intron A.( actually Rebif). Avonex now looks like a billion dollar drug and this should carry them through 2000. I am not a huge bull but I can understand the valuation. On MGI yes I am challenging the group. I guess I expected better initial results in the phase IIs. Shrinking tumors in Pancreatic cancer will not save the patient. Pancreatic cancer is a systemic disease. I am surprised that that do not have a pharma partner since they do not have the resources to take the drug through phase III themselves. Not having a good reason to sell may not be good enough to keep a stock. V1