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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (33978)	11/22/1999 7:31:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I haven't weighed in lately regarding market direction. I have a theory I would like to run by the gurus on this thread... 1) Everybody knows that the stocks are in the nosebleed section so I won't waste everyone's time citing valuation stats. 2) Market breadth is still terrible (although in fairness it is improving slightly). 3) October is over. 4) The FED is done for the year. 5) Tax year selling is over for the funds. 6) Lots of money awaits being put to use. 7) Y2K is a "non-issue" to the pros. 8) J6P is still largely on the sideline for all of the above reasons (primarily Y2K concerns). Hypothesis: I believe we will rally (against all odds) into January 1. Then, when everyone thinks the January melt up comes in, the smart money sells into the incoming money flow and promptly cleans up. No January effect this next year. The whole "melt up" happens between now and the end of the year. That is precisely what J6P is not expecting and would make the most money for the smart money. Any thoughts? Matt

To: Casaubon who wrote (33978)	11/22/1999 9:58:00 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Oil will trace down from here. It has already been agreed upon by the powers that be. I remain, SOROS ps I got here by searching "oil" -- I ain't afraid of no bear

To: Casaubon who wrote (33978)	11/23/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Casaubon, i merely developed a long term bullish view on oil based on what the majors' geologists seem to be saying about depletion. the Y2K supply worries are just a kick start for what could become an impressive LT move. not without bumps in the road of course....<ggg> note also that exploration spending has yet to pick up...which is also due to the distrust in the current upturn, and assures that the upturn will be rather durable imo. regards, hb