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To: Amy J who wrote (92989)	11/23/1999 8:14:00 AM
From: yousef hashmi	Respond to of 186894

-- [B] SEMI: Chip equipment Oct book-to-bill ratio 1.09 -- By Bridge News San Francisco--Nov 22--North American-based semiconductor equipment makers posted an October book-to-bill ratio of 1.09, the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International trade group reported Monday. The figure means $109 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped. * * * The 3-month average of worldwide shipments in October 1999 was $1.47 billion--a figure 4% above September's level and 72% above the October 1998 shipments of $852 million. The 3-month average of bookings in October 1999 was $1.59 billion. The bookings figure is 6% above September 1999 and 150% above the $638 million posted in October 1998. "The October numbers show that equipment orders are back on track for full recovery," said Stanley Myers, president of SEMI. "The resurgence of the global semiconductor industry, coupled with positive economic and industry forecasts for 2000, appear to be finally spurring growth in capital spending." The report from SEMI comes amid upbeat sentiment from Wall Street, which BancAmerica Securities characterized Monday as "a most unusual confluence of electronics and market trends is already creating visibility for 2001, boosting earnings estimates and one-year price targets." Those factors include accelerating personal computer and server sell-through combined with low original equipment manufacturer inventories; high-speed communications infrastructure traj ectories are rising in response to insatiable bandwidth demand; cable modems are finally hitting stride in the home, with burgeoning adoption of digital subscriber lines; and wireless product cycles are evolving rapidly to data-capable platforms with dramatically greater function and chip content. "Unparalleled visibility for semiconductor end markets, sub trendline capacity investments and lingering industry-wide shortage conditions through 2001, make for average annual revenue growth of 30% to 40% through the next 2 to 3 years. Valuation paranoia in demand-supply opportunities is nowhere near reflected in consensus estimates," said the BancAmerica report. End Bridge News Tel: (415) 835-7647 Send comments to Internet address equity@bridge.com [symbols:US;INTC:US;AMD:US;NSM:US;CNXT:US;TI:US;TIA:IT;TI] Symbols: US;INTC US;AMD US;NSM US;CNXT US;TI US;TIA IT;TI Source [B] - BridgeNews Global Markets Categories: I/SEM I/CMT R/US I/PRF I/TEL CAP/STOCKS CAP/INDEX

To: Amy J who wrote (92989)	11/28/1999 3:47:00 AM
From: jack bittner	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

hi Amy lucent's release answers some of your questions: lucent-optical.com as i understand it, the router will be deployed in the backbone. "45 billion harder to grow than 12 ...". yeah, the "law" of large numbers. depends what you're growing. this is not cars, it's inventions, patents, contacts, contracts, experience, speed from lab to market. lucent has over 2,000 patents in optics alone. i just finished reading "The Code Book", in my field. near the end of the book we come to quantum computers. say you want to find a number whose square and cube together use all the digits from one to zero, once and only once. the quantum computer will give you that in one second. it's 'way out in the future. lotsa problems to solve. but 2 guys, Peter Shor and Lov Grover are the first to devise useful quantum computer programs, both at Lucent's Bell Labs. to check a million keys a second a conventional computer'd take over 1,000 years. Grover's program'll do it in 4 minutes. and they've got a patent on it. my point is lucent has, i dunno, thousands of arrows in their quiver. each one bracketed with many patents. if they don't deploy the product, they'll get royalties, which go straight to the bottom line virtually costless. like qualcomm's cdma royalties - but multiplied by hundreds if not thousands of products. Q has essentially one arrow in its quiver: cdma and its offshoots like hdr. some bright people on the Q threads say cdma won't replace gsm/tdma, but will coexist with them. Q's a super outfit, more to come from them for sure. they're 150 times next year's earnings and lu is 41 times next year's. Q's up 1000% this year and lu is up 42%. matter of proportion. back to mundane things like contacts and contracts and present and near-future earnings. lu has installed over 5,000 systems, 29% of the market. no big installation will be begun without asking lucent to bid. lucent's only competitor (in optics) is nortel, another ripsnorter, but lucent says they lead nortel in 8 of 9 optics categories. nortel says lucent leads in only 7 of the 9. but nortel isn't into quantum computers. this startup ariel, shot up from $3.56 to 57 this week, makes a modem card. Times says their competition is csco and lucent. every time i check out a tech company turns out lucent is either the leader, the top competition, or a player. they're in cdma, too. overall lucent has no competition. think of the research and development money lucent has available out of $45 billion in revenues. i like the safety of betting on a guy that has his chips placed on almost every number on the table and is 6-foot 6 and weighs 250 lbs.