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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (55339)	11/24/1999 10:10:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

The fabricators and builders Posted on YAHOO by yours truly: post.messages.yahoo.com “Ralph by: SargeK 11/24/1999 9:56 am EST Msg: 289 of 289 I appreciate your concerns. This sector (FGH,UFAB and GIFI are good examples) is like a coiled spring, the more it is compressed, the more energy is likely be released when the orders start pouring in (which is anticipated to start within 2 or 3 months). An appropriate analogy is the price of crude itself. Almost a year ago there was nothing but widespread negative hype in the media and on these message boards. I correctly predicted, at the time, that world economies were turning positive, that the exporting nations would cut production and that crude would soar in 1999. For all the reasons you mention (plus tax selling) this sector has been under pressure not unlike that of crude a year ago. I am not suggesting, I am stating: This sector will skyrocket next year and because of the relatively small FLOAT in these issues the EXPLOSION (when it arrives) may easily surpass (on a percentage basis)the price increases of crude). I am not a market timer. I am a Value Investor who does some trading. The time for further averaging and BUYING is NOW. I will likely (over the next few sessions) reduce my holdings in NE and RIG to further accumulate shares in this segment of the industry while the price is bargain basement. It would not surprise (because of tax selling) that prices may go lower; but, I don't know that. When these companies (within a year) are selling at multiples of todays prices, I really wont give a s..t what single digit I bought them at. FWIW SargeK” P.S. It is worth noting that drilling rigs,semisubmersibles, etc can be contracted in a nanosecond compared to the lead time required to build one. FWIW

To: SargeK who wrote (55339)	11/24/1999 10:10:00 AM
From: John Doyle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Where is everyone? Heard Chevron has a 15% capex increase for next year. Anyone confirm that. I am looking to buy more FLC and VRC in this dip. The market believes the inventory build is because of Y2K and that there will be a price collapse after the new year. Any debate on that.

To: SargeK who wrote (55339)	11/24/1999 10:54:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

SargeK - regarding FGH SargeK; I'm not trying to pour water on your fire for FGH -but, honestly - here is the downside thinking to FGH's detractors.... What possible factors, or events can drive FGH in the nearterm ? The price of crude here has had zero effect; so one has to acknowledge the separation of FGH from crude prices. The main concerns of FGH's detractors; ie: "The Market" are imho: 1. declining backlog - ...need to see major ($150-$200M rig orders) to replace backlog being worked off. All this "get ready" work is not going to propell FGH to prior levels. They MUST have the "Big Rig" orders as "that" is what FGH is all about. 2. Still massive fleet of stacked offshore rigs - ...especially jackups; and still no substantial increase in deepwater rig dayrates - no where near levels needed to support new construction. Dayrates support the financial feasibility of deepwater newbuilds. Nothing on the horizon untill mid-late 2001 is projected by ANY analyst to support a return of the financial viability of deepwater newbuilds. Without the dayrates to support new construction - there will be little, if any degree of new construction for deepwater rigs. Surely an individual order, or two will occur; but no one forecasts anything in ANY cap ex budgets for any type of recovery in the major offshore rig construction sector. My thought is that RIG will virtually have to be about a $50 stock before FGH can be a $15-20+ stock...so if you believe in deepwater nearterm - why not play RIG vs. FGH !?!?!?! RIG gets the benefit and will move sooner off of dayrate increases; before FGH will see newbuild orders imho. I am not going to argue with anyone about the ultimate necessity of newbuilds for deepwater; but the timeframe and the environment for the financial feasibility for such construction to occur - seems to be totally ignored by folks here imho. Maybe I am wrong - as I am not short, or long; I hope so for the sake of those who are in FGH that I am wrong. Maybe the focus, as far a "hope" is concerned; should be on the HLX end of the business...? 3. The "show me the money" attitude toward the merger. What cost savings, synergies etc ? The street is pretty open about wanting to see a few qtrs from the "new" FGH before jumping aboard imho. 4. Add all the accounting issues - and the still heavy short interest and there is simply no institutional support for FGH here. I only see some minor short covering and ONLY individual investor activity; there is virtually no major institutional support of FGH here ? 5. Weakness in HLX's marine construction side of the business, with a history of cost over-runs,low margins and continued pricing pressure from global competitors etc... Not FGH bashing here... but Sarge;FGH may need to actually prove to the street the answers to these concerns actually "exist" and imho; they can't move their stock on the "expectations" that they will "exist" in the near future... they have to show the street the money in the next few quarterlies before anything major happens with the stock price. Unfortunately, FGH is in the single subsector whom will be the last recovering sector in the Boom 2000 cycle imho. ... my .02