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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stu R who wrote (3557)	11/24/1999 11:02:00 AM
From: Peter Sherman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

FWIW - i am intrigued by the T creation of a tracking stock and references, in the NYT today, to a focus on project Angel, McCaw and fixed wireless - does this presage a change from TDMA to CDMA for mobile wireless -- is this the first sign of T's capitulation

To: Stu R who wrote (3557)	11/24/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: quidditch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Stu, Q is at an interesting inflection point from a number of different perspectives, and I agree with you both that price (targets) as a multiple of sales and establishing an accurate price predictor model are probably not appropriate, because of the nature of Q's business model and the somewhat alpine heights of the market generally. But back to the inflection points (if that is an appropriate term) that make valuation difficult and uncertainty abound at this juncture: - imminent sale of handset division and the identity (consumer marketing strength) of the buyer; - real world earnings impact of the sale of handset division (reduced revenues, heightened margins, elimination of "transfer pricing" between divisions); - projecting earnings models in the absence of the pro forma induced lumpiness of the last three quarters; - projecting earnings models in light of CDMAOne/IS95A/IS95B adoption trends worldwide--is 70 million CDMA subscribers going to prove conservative? - projecting earnings models in light of a possible "product cycle" interim period between CDMAOne and 1xrt, HDR and MSM4500/5500; - projecting earnings models in light of projected loss of ASIC market share to LSI, DSP (once license signed and INTC issues resolved); what is perception of SP's to perceived software stack enhancements to CDMA ASICs introduced by such competitors; - rate of SP acceptance/launch of 1xrt and HDR, not to mention CDMA2000; - impact of competition from other (fixed) wireless data technologies; - China syndrome; - impact/timing of success or failure G*; - deployment/earnings impact of bulk of acquisitions from Q's $1.6 billion cash (seems Dr. J wanted to acquire some more intellectual capital and property--no immediate earnings impact); - will W-CDMA seamlessly meld into Euroland's future GSM deployment and be royalty bearing as we all expect; and, to a lesser extent, outcomes of various litigations, past due award by FCC, development of WK, other jv's with appliance makers and the usual uncertainties in the markets. Welcome to the thread(s) and enjoy your T'giving. To thread: as mentioned on Surfer's ol' thread, in our enjoyment of the bounty conferred on us as Q longs, we might do well to share a small fraction of our (unrealized) gains with those needy who are less fortunate than we in life on this planet. Steve

To: Stu R who wrote (3557)	11/24/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: JGoren	Respond to of 13582

Thanks for the background, Stu. I could tell you are a "serious" poster and certainly welcome that you have come out of lurking status. I think we agree on Cena, and believe you have a good point about his "reluctance" to play the game the same way others do. You may not know or remember this, but about two years ago, he did get caught too far out front on his earnings-price targets and Qcom caught the Southeast Asian flu. He has, imho, since then tried to be more cautious, even though I recall his earnings predictions were actually quite accurate. The market just overreacted to SEA fears that Korean market would decline and the stock stayed in the doldrums for at least a year. There are probably quite a few Quillionaires out there, because when he was with Bear, Stearns he strongly believed in the company back in 1994-96, and they bought the stock on the basis of his convictions. Although he has gone to another brokerage firm and Bear, Stearns now has no analyst covering Qcom, I watch what he says closely, because I believe he still possesses the best knowledge, understanding and analysis of the company.