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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (34157)	11/24/1999 6:49:00 PM
From: Richard Ruscio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm just a wandering newbie here, following the investing successes of dennis michael patterson, but don't tightening bollenger bands usually presage an increased probability of a sudden change in level ? And, isn't vix bearish / market bottoming lower (like, 20 or so) and bullish higher / market topping (30 plus). If the change of trend is my buddy, isn't vix higher a reasonable direction, hence market up ? Or, am I just being blinded by all the money being made in the top 100 / 65 / 50 / 25 / my and dennis' stocks ? And, I really miss Don Sew. Respectfully yours, rr

To: bobby beara who wrote (34157)	11/24/1999 6:53:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11/24/99 Shepler Capital Management: Intraweek Alert! [Editor's note: As explained in my trading positions from last weekend's update, I booked some profits on my Dec. OEX calls. Now, Shepler has issued a "caution flag". With the NASDAQ fulfilling it's 1929 replay level, it may behoove serious money to book some profits - while there still are some to book. -George Ure] In last weekends commentary we warned of the flashing "yellow" caution lights being given by many of our technical indicators. With this weeks continued deterioration in market internals and in the interest rate backdrop we are now very close to a "red" sell light. It now appears that barring a strong rally on Wednesday and Friday of this week, that our intermediate-term system will go from a buy signal to a flat signal. This would suggest that it would be prudent to start taking profits on long positions on any further rallies between now and year-end. To repeat the from this weekends commentary, there are several negative factors weighing on the market. For one, "smart money" indicators now show clear signs of professional distribution on the rally off the 10/19 lows. Secondly, the monetary and interest rate backdrop has worsened significantly of late with the long bond yield skyrocketing from 6% to 6.2% in just the last week. And reflecting these factors, market internals have resumed their freefall, with the McClellan Oscillator plummeting into oversold territory at -88 at the close on 11/23, and the A-D line dropping below its 10/19 low. >From a price perspective the SPX is still above key support levels. And, the market does still have positive seasonality on its side (barring any Y2K related distortions). Therefore, we will set our sell stop at 1375 SPX. A drop below 1375 SPX will send us back into cash. Barring a drop below 1375 SPX, we will use any rally above 1425 SPX as an opportunity to scale out of longs between now and year-end. Our next cycle turning point is due 12/7 +/- 3 days and is expected to be a low. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------