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To: kormac who wrote (55411)	11/24/1999 11:14:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thanks, looks like some interesting reading for a holiday weekend!

To: kormac who wrote (55411)	11/26/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: kormac	Respond to of 95453

Thread, I am trying to look into this North Atlantic Oscillation. The last 3 months the NAO index was -4.09 -0.59 -0.63, the last number referring to October this year. A negative number means that there is a high pressure over Iceland. I lived the winter of 1989-90 in France and remember reading of huge storms over the coast of Western Great Britain. At the same time this was a very mild winter in Europe as the low pressure brought warm air from the south. The low pressure region over Iceland during January and February 1990 is one the strongest one on record that go back 100 years (some of the early data may be indirect). Here is snippet from January 1998 issue of Science "When the NAO is high the Greenland Sea gets warm; it also gets less salty, which makes it less dense, and that also lessens convection. When the NAO changes to its negative state, though, the tables are turned-high pressure over Greenland brings strong, cold, dry winds from the North Pole down over the Greenland Sea, cooling it enough for convection. The same winds drive relatively fresh water and sea ice down the east coast of Greenland and round its tip into the Labrador Sea, where the freshness and lack of cooling winds make deep convection less and less likely. During the early 1990s, the high NAO drove convection in the Labrador Sea at a cracking pace, producing large amounts of cool water at depth. But in the winter of 1995/96, every thing changed. Straight after the highest winter index of the cen tury came the lowest. The winter after that was ambiguous, and the current one is only halfway 90 through, though it has certainly had its fair share of westerlies recently. What is going on? Is the NAO undergoing a long-term shift towards the negative-suggesting a cooling of northern European winters for years to come-or is it simply in the middle of a blip? A long-term shift in the climate towards low NAOs and cold European winters should, if Dickson is right, shift the production of cool, deep water from the Labrador Sea to the Greenland Sea". What does all this mean as far as weather in Eastern US and natural gas prices? It seems to me right now that a high pressure over Island will bring cold air from the Arctic and colder than normal winter to the east coast, but I will investigate this some more. Anyone care to join this discussion is of course welcome. It seems that the issue is important regarding oil vs. natural gas. with my best, Seppo