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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Islander99 who wrote (17304)	11/25/1999 5:07:00 AM
From: Educator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Hi Islander99- It's the pits to wake up at 2:30 A.M. and not be able to go back to sleep! Yuk! You make some good points concerning the strength of AOL. I, too, have noticed AND been envious of the deals they have made over the last couple of weeks. Instead of AOL paying to make things happen, others are coming to them with a cash partnership. Truly amazing! They are "again" the darling on Wall Street. Do you remember when AOL slid to the 70s from a high of 175? They were no longer the darling. Instead of hearing AOL being mention every 15 min. on CNBC, I could go half a day without seeing or hearing coverage. As the Net stocks rallied, AOL joined the pack. Now, they are a gem stock again. What happens when the increase in subscriber numbers begins to slow? Worse yet, what will happen if they have a quarter of losing subscribers? Investors will depart that stock like rats on a sinking ship. I heard an analyst say yesterday that AOL is a great investment now that they have a broadband strategy. WHAT broadband strategy?!!! I live in an area of 500,000 people. If AOL had a strategy, I would think they would tap into this market. I am not presently convinced that DSL is the answer to a "true" broadband play. As the word of cable broadband spreads, AOL is going to lose subscribers. You heard one poster say his was another AOL account to bite the dust. Mine was dumped last July. I read one stat where 65% of new ATHM subscribers cancelled an AOL account. I believe that was mentioned by T.J. this past summer. Won't that have an affect on their numbers? If not presently, eventually? As ATHM moves to 2 million, 3 million, 4 million, ...10 million? I predict cable broadband growth (don't forget the quiet and increasing Road Runner) will take a bite out of that remarkable AOL growth. While content is important, SPEED will become the winner! I watched Power Lunch yesterday and heard a magazine editor speak of the incredible developments of online, interactive games. Games you and your relatives across the globe can play together online. When asked how broadband figures into this, the gentleman said broadband was truly the key to making it happen. You need that bandwidth! With dialup, only frustration will come, and the door will be probably be closed to many of the online activities. Games is just one area! AOL is yet to make a deal that really counts. A broadband deal involving CABLE. They need ATHM more than ATHM needs them. I won't think otherwise until AOL shows me a quarter whereby their subscriber percentage increase is greater than ATHMs. Didn't ATHM grow 35% last quarter compared to second quarter? Were AOL's numbers that impressive? I credit you and other AOL Longs who have stayed with the stock through thick and thin. I just have serious concerns for its future, where to me ATHM looks very promising. You have a nice Thanksgiving, too! I baked five pies yesterday from scratch! (blackberry, two pumpkin, custard, and apple). I am a 90s kind of guy!:0) Take care, Ed

To: Islander99 who wrote (17304)	11/25/1999 7:58:00 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

islander....re: benefits of aol/athm deal forget about "eyeballs", as they are not constant generators of revenues. consider the following: 1)aol has 21m subscribers 2)majority of aol subscribers have cable tv 3)many cable tv subscribers have access to athm service 4)aol subscribers like their "community" and prefer over athm service 5)if aol can be delivered over athm then: how many aol "subscribers" will rush to activate the athm broadband delivery of their existing cable tv service? if only 10%, that would instantly triple athm subscriber base, not with "eyeballs" but with monthly revenue generated "subscribers". perhaps the aol subscriber would give less subscription revenue to athm then a true athm subscriber, but there exists strength in numbers, makes business sense to grow with strategic alliances. summary: aol has subscribers, athm has broadband. athm wants more subscribers, aol wants broadband......not a bad trade off....everyone benefits...and regulatory problems vanish

To: Islander99 who wrote (17304)	11/25/1999 10:51:00 AM
From: LLCoolG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Islander, With all due respect, you confirmed the exact point I would make. AOL is essentially becoming a Yahoo. Yahoo has analogous services to the specific deals you mentioned in your post. Plus, Yahoo is free, such that they are not dependent on their paying customers. I cannot argue with your contention that AOL is a merketing machine right now, and that they have lots of customers and eyeballs. DSL has recently rolled back pricing structures, and the RBOCs have been extremely aggressive in pricing ISP access such that they will take large chunks of that market. Cable modems are on the way. In 3 years, if broadband accelerates, like I believe that DSL is already accelerating beyond anyone's expectations, AOL becomes a version of Yahoo that people must pay for and access at a slower speed. When broadband hits, many of those 19M, especially the younger and technically-educated demographic which is the most valued, will be leaving AOL in droves. I left AOL last month after 5 years as a customer. Unless you can get that content at high speed, it is becoming pretty worthless, especially when you have to deal with the constant harassment of massive advtersiements popping up on your screen every time you log in. They may keep some clients using AOL as their ISP at a higher rate than competitors, but it will be a net loss for them. When broadband is available, people wil flock towards sites like Real Networks, which is relatively worthless with a 56k modem. The bottom line is, AOL needs a deal with ATHM. ATHM is going to get there anyway, based on massive customers demanding broadband service. Without a deal, AOL will be reduced to charging for services that Yahoo provides for free, across any ISP. When that happens, either Yahoo gets a major bump forward, AOL drops a lot, or they meet in the middle. Either way, ATHM benefits a lot more by staying independent. My disclosure is that I recently got DSL, understand the tremendous differences in broadband content, speed, and convenience, and now fully recognize where this is going. If cable is better than DSL, as many say, the days of the 56k modem and dial-up service going to come to a screeching halt, unless it is given away for free. Take care. G