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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: quidditch who wrote (3601)11/25/1999 3:09:00 AM
From: quidditch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
 
OH, yeah, T-Angel: not that I want to rain on anyone's T'giving parade, but it seems to me that we're back to rank speculation on a T move to CDMA. TDMA may well be toast, but that does not necessarily lead to a next step of opting for our beloved CDMA. I thought I saw one story that, in connection with the move to the tracking stock, this would also highlight Angel, McCaw's fixed wireless internet delivery technology that supposedly has been under development since the mid-1990s. (T got its wireless when it purchased McCaw cellular, or whatever name it went by.) Angel might be Vaporware II, but it does not appear to be CDMA, at least not yet. Angel's rollout would be part of the tracking stock's business.

Steve



To: quidditch who wrote (3601)11/25/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Ruffian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
 
Here We Go Again?>

Industry struggles to define a model for resolving intellectual-property conflicts -- Licensing strategy for 3G cellular under
fire
Nov. 24, 1999 (Electronic Engineering Times - CMP via COMTEX) -- PARIS - Proponents of third-generation cellular
telephony are setting up an independent company to oversee intellectual-property claims for 3G technology. But the
move is already drawing fire from some observers, who say the effort lacks the clout of a full patent pool or licensing
agency.

Starting in March, the 3G Patent Platform, set up by the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) group
shepherding 3G standards, will assume its role as "a single-door entry for evaluating, certifying and licensing 3G
technology," said Serge Raes, secretary of the UMTS Intellectual Property Association, based here. The group plans to
hand off much of that work to an independent agency.

But some intellectual-property (IP) experts bidding for the job say 3G needs a more structured approach than what
UMTS is planning, both to ensure that all patent holders participate and to ease the process of collecting royalties.

The debate comes as the industry grapples with how best to handle patent claims from multiple companies on
technologies destined for wide deployment. Independent consultants-largely attorneys and accounting firms-are assuming
what appears to be a growing role in areas such as licensing administration, patent evaluation and royalties collection.

Indeed, hiring outside experts to sort through the tangled web of IP rights essential to emerging standards has become a
trend. A group of consumer and computer companies including Apple, Compaq, Sony, Matsushita and Toshiba have just
handed responsibility for implementing a joint licensing program for IEEE 1394 to an independent agency called 1394la,
newly formed within the MPEG LA, itself a pioneer in the field of patent pooling (see story, page 16). Almost every other
cross-industry spec set in recent years-including DVD, various copy-protection schemes and the Digital Video Broadcast
standard-also rely on patent pooling.

Legal and technology experts agree there is no single formula that ensures success for high-tech IP licensing. However,
the 3G Patent Platform is viewed as a particularly high-stakes project that faces the huge challenge of getting key IP
holders to sign on to the one-stop shopping concept. One major player, CDMA pioneer Qualcomm Inc., has dug in its
heels in opposition to any of the proposed 3G patent arrangements.

In this climate, the 3G Patent Platform appears to be following an uncharted path. It will be set up as a new, nonprofit
company called NewCo that is "neither a patent pool nor a licensing agency," said Raes of the UMTS IP association.
Rather, the group will oversee the task of licensing administration and patent evaluation, which it plans to outsource.

"The outsourcing is planned in order to ensure independent evaluation and certification process by expert evaluators,"
said Raes.

Unlike most other such agencies, NewCo will steer clear of such business activities as pooling patents and collecting
royalties. Under the 3G Patent Platform scheme, the licensees will pay royalties directly to the companies holding the
corresponding licenses. Patent holders and licensees are free to negotiate deals to meet their business requirements. All
licenses, whether obtained through the 3G Patent Platform or by separate negotiation, are made between the patent
holder and the licensees.

In this way, the 3G Patent Platform aims to create a voluntary, industry-led process that simplifies IP rights and cuts the
cost of patents, in hopes of gaining a bigger market for the platform. According to industry sources, a lesson was learned
from GSM phones. Today, 20 percent of the cost of a second-generation GSM handset pays for IP rights, due to the
lack of a joint licensing program.

Standard rate

Under the proposed 3G Patent Platform, from the first granting of a license through subsequent 3G patent processes, all
licensees will pay the same standard royalty rate, subject to the maximum cumulative royalty rate, a setup designed to
"provide a pragmatic answer to an industrywide concern," said Raes.

Some experts outside the UMTS, however, have questioned whether a hands-off, nonprofit structure like NewCo can
work. The 3G Patent Platform still needs to attract some key players to its camp. Further, even after going through the
3G Patent Platform processes, individual companies will retain the dirty job of royalties collection. Some have warned
that the 3G Patent Platform's licensing mechanism may be a recipe for failure.

"The way some of the basic responsibilities are structured by the 3G Patent Platform makes me wonder whether it can be
successful," said Larry Horn, vice president of licensing and business development at MPEG LA, who nevertheless plans
to bid for the 3G job. "It strikes me that the 3G proposal underappreciates the value of marketing and salesmanship
required to get more IP holders signed on for licensing, and the hands-on job of collecting royalties from licensees."


The Denver-based MPEG LA is an independent agency that has established a successful IP model for MPEG-2 video
patent pooling. By getting a clean bill of health from the U.S. Department of Justice, which ruled in June 1997 that the
agency is not anti-competitive, MPEG LA is believed to have shown the way for commercializing complex,
cross-industry standards.

The business models for MPEG LA and the 3G effort are markedly different. Since 3G royalty payments are arranged
between licensees and licensors, no fee is taken out of the royalty revenues. According to Raes, the licensing
administrator adds no value to the royalties flow. Instead, the administrator keeps records of net sales value declared by
the licensees for each license and per product category, he added.

In contrast, at MPEG LA, it is the licensing administrator's responsibility to collect royalties and to bring companies
holding essential IP to the joint licensing program, Horn said. Because MPEG LA earns its fee according to the amount
of money it successfully collects from technology users, "we are financially more motivated to succeed in [patent
pooling]," explained Horn.

Horn said that both MPEG LA and the new 1394la are using the same fee structure. The licensing administrators get 10
percent of what they collect from licensees, for collected royalties up to $75 million annually. The cut drops as annual
royalties rise. For example, administrators get 5 percent for collected yearly royalties between $75 million and $250
million, and only 2.5 percent for royalties above $250 million a year.

The business model for a 3G licensing administration is still "a gray area," said Helene Jay, vice president of licensing at
Sipro Lab Telecom (Montreal), which is also bidding on the 3G job. Jay speculated that the financial gain from this job
"will not be very big." Her company's interest is not money but "to get as much exposure as possible," she said.

Others tendering bids for the 3G Patent Platform job also debated the appropriate role of the licensing administrator. The
key issue, many said, is a matter of control: how much power an industry group-composed of patent holders and
licensees-should keep to itself to act as mediator.

Some argued that the industry group should grant the independent licensing administrator responsibility for critical
negotiations in pulling together a joint licensing program. MPEG LA's Horn, for example, expressed concern that the 3G
folks might mistakenly limit the licensing administrator to acting only as "a facilitator or a coordinator" of licensing
procedures.

Sipro's Jay said that an independent licensing administrator appointed by the 3G Patent Platform will not be expected to
mediate at all. For example, the responsibility of recruiting Qualcomm, a critical holdout from the 3G Patent Platform, will
fall to a director general of NewCo, she said.

However, Raes said that job will be shared by NewCo and its administrator. "Promotion of an innovative licensing
scheme [and attracting new members are] one of the tasks of the licensing administrator, but also of the members of
NewCo."

According to rules and conditions agreed upon by a UMTS working group, a licensee becomes a member of the 3G
Patent Platform upon being granted a license, and is required to accept the principle of reciprocity. Members of the 3G
Patent Platform will become voting members of NewCo. The management of NewCo will be delegated to a director
general.


Brian Kearsey, president of the UMTS IP association, said in an interview with EE Times a few months ago that "We
think we will cover 65 to 75 percent of the owners of essential intellectual-property rights. The alternative is a free-for-all,
as happened in GSM, with a multitude of bilateral agreements." At that time, Kearsey said the agency was still lobbying
Qualcomm to sign on.

Having NewCo play the role of mediator may not be the best strategy, some argued, saying that job is best left to a third
party. "Having an arm's -length relationship has a serious advantage," said Horn. "Because we [at MPEG LA] are in a
neutral position both from competing fellow IP holders and from licensees, I believe they trusted us more in negotiation."

Besides neutrality, licensing administrators need expertise in licensing and technology, organizational competence, and the
ability to deal with agencies and corporations in geographically diverse regions, said Sipro's Jay. Riding on its success in
putting together a patent pool for G.729 voice compression, she claimed that her company can fill the bill.

"We believe the fact that we are a small company works to our advantage. Everyone who has dealt with us before knows
exactly how we do business," said Jay.

The closing date for bidding to be the 3G Patent Platform's licensing administrator is "still to be defined," said Raes. He
added, however, that "All processes should be completed and [a] contract signed at the time NewCo is launched in
spring 2000."

Those who participated in an initial bidders' conference in London earlier this month include the U.K. companies PA
Consulting and BTG International, Canada's McCarthy Tetrault, Germany's Cohausz & Florak, France's Cabinet Patrice
Vidon and the U.S. company PriceWaterhouse Coopers, along with Sipro and MPEG LA.



To: quidditch who wrote (3601)11/25/1999 10:07:00 AM
From: marginmike  Respond to of 13582
 
Then why are they negotiating with Q?



To: quidditch who wrote (3601)11/25/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: LBstocks  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13582
 
Re: why would MOT want Q's handset division?>
QCOM: A Positive Case For Motorola or Nokia
Salomon Smith Barney
Friday, November 12, 1999

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--SUMMARY:--QUALCOMM, Inc.--Telecommunications Equipment * The case for MOT & NOK purchasing Qualcomm's mobile phone operations * Nokia & MOT can immediately convert the business from a unit generating an operating loss of $40 million to a unit generating $220 to $300 million in operating profit * Accretive to Nokia & Motorola if purchased for under $5 billion. * The purchase price is likely to be well below $750 million for the right strategic relationship. I.e. a long-term ASIC agreement. * Nokia can create $5-$7 per share in shareholder value, while MOT's market value could get a lift of $8-$11 per share. --EARNINGS PER SHARE-------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 09/99 EPS $0.30A $0.41A $0.75A $0.91A $2.47A Previous 09/00 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $4.00E Current 09/00 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $4.00E Previous 09/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $5.30E Current 09/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $5.30E Previous 09/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Current 09/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Footnotes: --FUNDAMENTALS-------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:1H Prior:No Change Price (11/11/99)....:$345.50 P/E Ratio 09/00.....:86.4x Target Price..:$370.00 Prior:No Change P/E Ratio 09/01.....:65.2x Proj.5yr EPS Grth...:44.4% Return on Eqty 99...:48.9% Book Value/Shr(00)..:9.90 LT Debt-to-Capital(a)0.2% Dividend............:$N/A Revenue (00)........:4163.00mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:159.0mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:54934.5mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:(a) Data as of the most recently reported quarter. Comments............: --OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------ We believe Qualcomm already has received several proposals from manufacturers that are interested in purchasing its mobile phone operations. Interested parties include top tier and 2nd tier handset manufacturers as well as other electronic companies such as offshore manufacturers of personal computers. The purpose of this note is to discuss why we believe it would make economic sense for either Nokia or Motorola to purchase Qualcomm's mobile phone business. Why would the two largest and most successful mobile phone manufacturers want to purchase Qualcomm's money losing operations? We estimate Motorola and Nokia can create $5-$7 billion ($8-$11 per share) and $6-$8 billion ($5-7 per share ) in shareholder value, respectively, by purchasing Qualcomm's mobile phone operations. Qualcomm sold 7 million phones and generated $1.47 billion in sales last year. However, it lost $40 million pretax on that revenue since Qualcomm does not have the scale manufacturing capabilities and purchasing power that is available to Motorola and Nokia, who will produce 55-60 million and 75-80 million units this year, respectively. Moreover, Qualcomm spends a tremendous amount of financial resources trying to build a brand to compete against two behemoths that can leverage their sales & marketing budgets across several technologies and geographic markets. Thus, Motorola and Nokia can take an operation that had a negative operating margin of just under 3% and immediately have it generate 15%-20% operating margins. In addition, Qualcomm phones will get an immediate boost by simply placing the Nokia or Motorola brand name on the front cover. Our shareolder value creation assumptions for Nokia and Motorola are based on Nokia's and Motorola's current price to earnings multiple on 2000 earnings and our view that operating margins at Qualcomm's handset business immediately move up to 15%-20% operating under the management of Nokia or Motorola. While the financial synergies and/or arbitrage are attractive, we believe there is a strategic case as well. Qualcomm's existing mobile phone line-up as well as those still under development would be complementary to both Nokia and Motorola. Nokia would be able to jump start its CDMA position, which is at least a year behind schedule. In fact, we believe Nokia's goal for 1999 was to sell about 5 million units, however, it will be hard pressed to break one million. Motorola, on the other hand, would be able to solidify its CDMA position against the successful entry by some of the Asian manufacturers such as Samsung. For the right strategic relationship, we believe Qualcomm is likely to part with its mobile phone operations for significantly less than $750 million since its primary concern is a strategic relationship. I.e. a long-term ASIC agreement. Based on the shareholder value creation that would be available to Nokia and Motorola as well as our belief that the transaction would be accretive to both companies' earnings at any purchase price below $5 billion, we believe there a strong likelihood that Nokia and Motorola are in the pole position to in acquire Qualcomm's handset business.