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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (34300)	11/27/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

How high is too high? I think this market is going to answer that question for all of us as trading plays out over this favorable seasonal period. In the very short term (days - week(1)) I think the market MAY get rattled as the long bond pushes towards the 6.5% area. If that does happen I would pay close attention to the stocks that have NOT participated in the move as of yet. Stocks like DELL that are pointing towards a breakout out of its consolidation pattern. My thinking is that stocks like CSCO, AOL and SUNW which have made huge moves already have much more room to correct than a stock like DELL. If the smart money is going to ATTEMPT to shake the loose fruit from the trees they will do it with the CSCO's of the world. The manner in which this market holds up to this possible rise in rates will be key for me. Let me just say that it is very possible that this overall move may in fact be in its infancy! When I look at the basket of stocks that I follow to include some of the major players as well as almost every internet IPO of the last five months I am seeing stocks that are attempting to break out of basing patterns. Besides the charts of the major indexes like the DOW and RUT which are still pointing towards higher prices. How this market handles a possible break to the next level in rates should be the key over the next couple of weeks. Regards, StockOperator

To: Vitas who wrote (34300)	11/27/1999 2:53:00 PM
From: JDinBaltimore	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Vitas, I got info from CBOE on S&P index weights for each of the stocks that you mentioned. The total was 2.306% Sept 30, 1999 weights. That only represents 27.968 points at current level of a total of 1414.6. If the wheels fall off you'll easily shave 10-15% off a market cornerstone; look at 87' before and after prices. This whole guess work is like beating a dead horse. The only thing I was trying to accomplish was a feel for the number required to float current bubble. We all know that it can't be accomplished now, so we sit and hopefully don't get blindsided by the inevitable pop. One thing is for sure; we don't know where money would come from to float current bubble, but rest assured when the margin calls come, and they will, the companies you mentioned tank with the rest. Just My Opinion No offense intended Best to you JD