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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (72781)	11/27/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

I think it would be foolhardy to presume that because MC does not give guidance there is likely to be an upside surprise and no downside surprise. We were reminded again last week how uncertain COMPAQ can be in presenting its financial data to the market. First there was their filing of a serious unanticipated write-off when all the market has been assuming that the massive write-offs in the 3Q were probably overly generous and certainly comprehensive. Then we had the retraction of the filing and reference to comments made at a CC that the Alpha related costs would be considered as normal operating costs. Hardly competent. That still leaves in the air questions about the development costs of iPaq and the other rumoured new products which are to be announced soon. Like iPaq the costs of development will be this quarter but no revenues from them will be forthcoming until at least 1Q. In addition there is the concern that iPAQ will encourage customers to postpone purchases of PCs and integrated systems until iPAQ is available for delivery in 1Q. Then there is the potential impact of YK2 on the last weeks of 4Q and the first weeks of 1Q. While I agree that COMPAQ should not favour analysts over shareholders I think MC is not doing a good job in presenting reasonable guidance. His rah rah speeches may be good for employee morale but they will look quite sick if COMPAQ should warn or if COMPAQ fails to meet what are already the very reduced expectations of the market. The suspicion must be that he is not on top of the financials and not in a position to give reliable guidance. Then we must question why not - why has a CFO not been appointed? Perhaps potential CFO's are waiting until they are sure that all the dirty linen has been washed in public. I realise the above is speculation, but speculation is all one can do where reliable guidance is not forthcoming.