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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bruce Brown who wrote (11474)11/30/1999 3:24:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
At least I was not too lazy this morning. I'm going to take the liberty of reporting about the CC last night from Brocade's earnings report, thanks to other's who listened in - I was in bed asleep on this side of the pond:

Brocade Conference Call Highlights:

*Y2000 will be an excellent growth year for FC and SAN beginning with First Quarter and growing from there.


*Revenue growth for this quarter weighed in at 457% year on year, 50% sequentially

*Market for FC (fiber channel) is accelerating and the acceptance of SANs is exploding

*The sales cycles are shortening with orders coming in faster post sales presentation

*Market acceptance is increasing.

*Management believes there will be an acceleration of SAN deployment in year 2000

*They have had accelerated pilots, and believes that in 2000 "stunning growth" will result as soon as Y2K is past


*At a recent VRTS conference, there were more than 1000 CIO's there to find out how to get started with SANs


*Market data so far only takes account of *new* deployments. Once initial
deployment takes place and customers see it work, they want to upgrade their
existing networks. The return on investment on storage consolidation is "stunning".
This upgrade cycle is a *huge* opportunity.

*The new Silkworm 2000 family, a new entry level product ramped up strongly.
40% of products shipped were these. The Silkworm 2000 family "offers a switch at
hub prices". Competes with hubs, but gives a migration path to switch fabrics, and
performs better.

*They are hoping to take share against loops with these new products. They think
Silkworm 2000 will be a winner and will get them a lot of business going forward

*When BRCD competes on performance, BRCD wins

*This consolidates BRCD as a market leader. Has largest installed base and broadest product line

*BRCD revenue is greater than that of all competitors combined

*BRCD's guidance is "extremely conservative" based on visibility. Is "can't miss guidance"

Here's the financial information:

From zdii.com :

$3.6M earnings, $30.1 revenue for $0.12EPS, compared to the $0.08 consensus.


The numbers from biz.yahoo.com :


Brocade Communications Q4 results
SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov 29 (Reuters) -
Statements of Operations
(in thousands, except per share data)

Three Months Ended Year Ended
Oct. 30, Oct. 31, Oct. 30, Oct. 31,
1999 1998 1999 1998
(unaudited)
Net revenues $30,094 $5,407 $68,692 $24,246
Cost of revenues 14,818 3,039 33,497 15,759
Gross margin 15,276 2,368 35,195 8,487
50.8% 43.8% 51.2% 35.0%

Operating expenses:
Research and development 5,485 3,433 15,267 14,744
Sales and marketing 5,511 1,334 13,288 5,154
General and administrative
1,434 571 3,849 3,813
Amortization of deferred
stock compensation 280 7 1,937 7
Total operating expenses
12,710 5,345 34,341 23,718
Income (loss) from operations
2,566 (2,977) 854
(15,231)
Interest income, net 1,068 (157) 1,737 120
Income (loss) before income taxes
3,634 (3,134) 2,591
(15,111)
Provision for income taxes 73 -- 106 --
Net income (loss) 3,561 (3,134) 2,485 (15,111)
Pro forma net
income (loss) per share 0.12 (0.17) 0.10 (0.84)
Shares used in the
calculation of pro forma
net income (loss) per share
29,141 18,267 25,572 17,915

Check the link, the formatting is beyond my technological skills. ;-)


BB



To: Bruce Brown who wrote (11474)11/30/1999 3:30:00 AM
From: GuinnessGuy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Bruce,

"The stock fell to $1 a share during that transition. If Brocade has 80 percent of the market already which is in full tornado, how can we assume that Ancor is 'stealing' a nice chunk of market share? If his statement is true that Ancor's technology is "on par, if not better" that this means a game could be won? I think we all know the answer to
that question. I don't think that this section of the market is going to be a 30 round fight as Mr. Wu suggests. Yes, a few rounds, but 30???
"

Please explain how you come to the conclusion that fibre channel based storage area networks are in a 'full blown' tornado? Brocade, with 80% of the market share(maybe), only did $30 million this quarter. If that's indicative of a 'full blown' tornado, I'm taking my shares from various companies in this sector and dumping them tomorrow!

IMO, the sector has hardly begun to show revenues. And as far as Paul Johnson is concerned, he's playing the gorilla game to the maximum by not even mentioning Ancor as a competitor in his report. Funny thing too, since the Brocade pre-IPO SEC documents mention Ancor first on the list of competitors. I wonder how many shares Mr. Johnson has in Brocade?

You might want to read the latest report from an analyst whose firm did NOT underwrite the Ancor secondary. It was released on the 22nd of November. You can find the copied transcript here:

messages.yahoo.com

It is from the widely respected Ashok Kumar, who places an aggressive buy on Ancor. You might also check out this link which is a boiled down version of Kumar's analysis.

cnbc.com

Bottom line: It may not be the second round of a thirty round fight(maybe round 2 of 10), but it is in no way a full blown tornado. Just read the estimates for 2001 and compare them to where we are today. This will be an interesting fight between Ancor and Brocade. Stay tuned.

Craig



To: Bruce Brown who wrote (11474)11/30/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: Tom Ardnij  Respond to of 54805
 
Bruce, Thanks for the response. I'll help out in analyzing the group of storage companies. I think that this entire arena is in prime time because of the move to application server farms. My understanding about Ancor is that it is focused on Sun Microsystems servers, whereas Brocade Communications has built it's lead on the systems that compete with SUNW.

In any case I believe we should be concentrating on the games that exist around storage. Whether it is fibre channel switches, SANS or NAS. If we can determine who owns the enabling technologies, we certainly have a special opportunity.

Best Regards,
Tom